Jump to content

What's Hot?


Recommended Posts

It is hard to identify actual trade opportunities with many forum users seeming to use different trading method but perhaps it might be more useful to discuss what markets might be hot (i.e. offer best risk reward equation).  Currently, for me, Stocks are overblown and until they break down into a bear I find the these markets too risky.


FX too is a challenge with post Brexit GBP/EUR sideways action unresolved (indeed much longer term sideways action than just Brexit).  USDJPY offered a decent Short in July and I believe a break below recent lows there will signal another leg lower and another shorting opportunity, indeed the current small retrace up to resistance could offer a decent Short entry point and USDCAD and Oil may offer something (Short and Long respectively) in due course but not there yet.


So the only markets that seem to offer a good bet just now are Gold and Silver.  At least they did on Friday when I took my Shorts at the wave B turn.  As I had previously observed the COT data was way over heated, signaling a retrace at least and other technicals supported a strong retrace back towards the 1200/1250 area on Gold.  Fundamentals too support this with strong NFP data ramping the stocks rally and signaling a possible revival of USD rate rises (an erroneous assumption in my view) being bearish for Gold. The retrace down has now begun I believe and after a possible brief retrace back up on the hourly chart a strong move down is on the cards.


My bigger picture thinking is that this move lower on Gold/Silver coincides with the last gasp of the Bull rally on stocks and that they will both reverse around the same time with Stocks going Bearish while Gold/Silver goes max Bull.


Gold Charts (similar picture on Silver)


Link to comment


Don't worry about forum trader methods...we don't move markets.


Ny sugar11 was hot on upside

Coffee may follow

AUD is hot on upside especially after the stubbornness to fall after rate cut

of course there may be reaction which can transform in downturn 

Link to comment

Yeah I'm not worried about IG customers moving the market, my point was no one seems to want to discuss trades, or just want trade entry tips to follow so I thought maybe people would be more interested in a discussion about longer term market trends that are providing a backdrop that is strong for a particular trade direction.



Re Commodities:

I don't trade agri business because it is all about the harvest so very seasonal.  Gold and Silver are the hot markets for me, although Oil could be about to get interesting for Bulls again... 


Re FX:

On the Aussie (assume you mean AUDUSD) I agree it is looking bullish just now but only in the short term (I expect another leg down on USD - DX and after that a strong rally).  I am not a short term trader so wont be riding the Aussie up but stalking it for a Short when it tops out (probably in the 7800-8000 area).


For me USDJPY is the only FX market that makes sense and, as discussed on a separate thread just now, is at a pivotal point.  All other main currency markets (USD crosses with GBP,EUR,CAD) are in the doldrums until they break one way or the other and that is hard trading.


Re stocks:

I must leave it alone until this wally rally concludes and we see the beginning of the end...

Link to comment

Discussion about trades is hard and can be pointless.

The long term trends.....you might want to talk (listen) to an economist :)


Commodities: would be wrong to think is 'just' about harvest. Is just supply and demand like any other product. Harvest is part of the supply. Its also about inventories and how much population consume (use). You like trading in oil, well its the same.

 Out of season there are beautiful trends also, but of course you can trade in whatever you like and feel comfortable with.


Stocks: depends what stocks but we had some correction, some stocks may be going up still way in to the year dragging the indexes even higher. I actually expect stocks even higher.

Link to comment


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
  • Create New...