What's Hot?

[Mercury]

It is hard to identify actual trade opportunities with many forum users seeming to use different trading method but perhaps it might be more useful to discuss what markets might be hot (i.e. offer best risk reward equation).  Currently, for me, Stocks are overblown and until they break down into a bear I find the these markets too risky.

 

FX too is a challenge with post Brexit GBP/EUR sideways action unresolved (indeed much longer term sideways action than just Brexit).  USDJPY offered a decent Short in July and I believe a break below recent lows there will signal another leg lower and another shorting opportunity, indeed the current small retrace up to resistance could offer a decent Short entry point and USDCAD and Oil may offer something (Short and Long respectively) in due course but not there yet.

 

So the only markets that seem to offer a good bet just now are Gold and Silver.  At least they did on Friday when I took my Shorts at the wave B turn.  As I had previously observed the COT data was way over heated, signaling a retrace at least and other technicals supported a strong retrace back towards the 1200/1250 area on Gold.  Fundamentals too support this with strong NFP data ramping the stocks rally and signaling a possible revival of USD rate rises (an erroneous assumption in my view) being bearish for Gold. The retrace down has now begun I believe and after a possible brief retrace back up on the hourly chart a strong move down is on the cards.

 

My bigger picture thinking is that this move lower on Gold/Silver coincides with the last gasp of the Bull rally on stocks and that they will both reverse around the same time with Stocks going Bearish while Gold/Silver goes max Bull.

 

Gold Charts (similar picture on Silver)

 



[valu]



 

Don't worry about forum trader methods...we don't move markets.

 

Ny sugar11 was hot on upside

Coffee may follow

AUD is hot on upside especially after the stubbornness to fall after rate cut

of course there may be reaction which can transform in downturn 

[Mercury]

Yeah I'm not worried about IG customers moving the market, my point was no one seems to want to discuss trades, or just want trade entry tips to follow so I thought maybe people would be more interested in a discussion about longer term market trends that are providing a backdrop that is strong for a particular trade direction.

 

 

Re Commodities:

I don't trade agri business because it is all about the harvest so very seasonal.  Gold and Silver are the hot markets for me, although Oil could be about to get interesting for Bulls again... 

 

Re FX:

On the Aussie (assume you mean AUDUSD) I agree it is looking bullish just now but only in the short term (I expect another leg down on USD - DX and after that a strong rally).  I am not a short term trader so wont be riding the Aussie up but stalking it for a Short when it tops out (probably in the 7800-8000 area).

 

For me USDJPY is the only FX market that makes sense and, as discussed on a separate thread just now, is at a pivotal point.  All other main currency markets (USD crosses with GBP,EUR,CAD) are in the doldrums until they break one way or the other and that is hard trading.

 

Re stocks:

I must leave it alone until this wally rally concludes and we see the beginning of the end...

[valu]

Discussion about trades is hard and can be pointless.

The long term trends.....you might want to talk (listen) to an economist

 

Commodities: would be wrong to think is 'just' about harvest. Is just supply and demand like any other product. Harvest is part of the supply. Its also about inventories and how much population consume (use). You like trading in oil, well its the same.

 Out of season there are beautiful trends also, but of course you can trade in whatever you like and feel comfortable with.

 

Stocks: depends what stocks but we had some correction, some stocks may be going up still way in to the year dragging the indexes even higher. I actually expect stocks even higher.