Jump to content

Gold/Silver rally at an end?


Mercury

Recommended Posts

For now perhaps this leg of the rally is over but long term, once the stocks and bonds market bubbles burst I think Gold and Silver will soar.  Commitments of Traders (COT) data are at all time highs for Gold and Silver and the non commercials are uniformly bad at calling the end of a trend, piling in just as the trend concludes.  Last week there was another COT surge in Silver, although Gold backed off a bit (cold feet?).  When main stream media start singing the praises of something that usually spells the end too.

 

Check out this article (link below).  I agree with the Black Swan moment and I think that will be asset bubbles bursting all over the place but we aren't there just yet.  I think we need to see another leg up in the suckers rally on stocks first and that could result is a coincidental drop in Gold/Silver to a retrace support point and then...

 

Anyone got a view they would care to share, especially to the contrary?

 

https://news.markets/commodities/gold-rallys-seen-best-days-rbc-23594/

 

Link to comment

That was fast, good ol' NFP, I guess the market is now reassessing their probabilities of a Fed rate hike upward.  I think we can declare the current Gold and Silver rally aborted, at least for now.  I remain long term bullish but we need to see a significant retrace into an EWT Wave 2 retrace point before the next very strong rally wave.  There are several possible turning points so we will have to track it and see but so far I think we have already seen the A-B part of an A-B-C pull back so I expect this next move down to be a fairly strong 1-5 wave affair.  50% Fib is the most likely on this market in my view.  For now Shorting Gold and Silver is the way forward until that Black Swan moment arrives.

 

Anyone got a view they would care to share?

Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...