Trade the Dow

[Catweazle]

Here's one scenario for today, another rejection on H4 200ema support back up to or towards the 100sma before the next leg down. Just a possible scenario, so we'll see. Either way, I think markets are set to go lower. 

 

[Catweazle]

Dow moving up. Resistance today so far has been the 30 min 200ema @ 930

[Kodiak]

Be careful with short positions

Have a feeling that this could pop to the upside?

Maybe some Trump twitter or something else?

 

[Catweazle]

Support so far today my 10m 200ema sitting @ 978 currently. Some weak resistance ( from now on R for resistance and S for support ) 27,045, but momentum up and support looks strong atm, esp from today's central pivot @ 938 up to the 10m 200ema.  

[Catweazle]

Woa!! Very weal ISM data just sent Dow down almost 100 pips down to the CP support area.

[Catweazle]

I'm watching around 890 for potential S.

[Catweazle]

That's gone, but yesterday's low reached.. Further down, the H4 200ema sits on top of today's S2 pivot @ 762

[Catweazle]

Support looks to be holding for now on today's S3 pivot @ 690

[phillo]

1 hour ago, Catweazle said:

Support looks to be holding for now on today's S3 pivot @ 690

ambitious target of 550

[phillo]

2 minutes ago, elle said:

ambitious target of 550

 

[Catweazle]

Fib levels for potential support, and weekly Dow chart captured Sept 23rd. As shown, price could return to the Weekly 100sma.

[phillo]

3 hours ago, elle said:

 

 

[dmedin]

The Dow is taking a dump.

[Catweazle]

Dow has just hit the 76.4% Fibonacci, ( see above chart ) and is reacting predicatively. The Weekly 200ema still looks to me like a likely target, so we'll have to see whether the 76.4 can hold the price. 

[dmedin]

That's a nice big fat HAMMER my bonnie bairns

[Catweazle]

Big potential resistance just above on Dow, the 76.4% @ 26,940. The 76.4% sent the price back up ( see above chart ), so can it send it back down. Loads of resistance around this level, so watching closely.

[Catweazle]

Very strong rejection off of 27,000. Too early to say whether this may be the top, but whatever happens in the short term, US indecis look to be setting up for an enormous fall. 

[Catweazle]

Potentially massive resistance zone has been reached on the Dow, the area between 28,000 - 28,500. If it breaks, then we should see the price move up towards 30,000, but if it holds and falls, then for me this could be the top. I think the remainder of November will give us the answer. Very critical period.

[Catweazle]

Dow has snapped back from its early gains today. Two reasons I can see, firstly the price was well within my danger zone posted above, and secondly was the strong H1 diversion formed when the price pushed higher up to 28,160.

For me, there is a pretty strong possibility that the Dow Jones peaked today. Still early days, so don't want to sound overly confident, but we should have a pretty good idea by the end of this week. Right now on H1 100sma support, so we'll see if that can send the price back up.

[One]

On 20/11/2019 at 00:19, Catweazle said:

Dow has snapped back from its early gains today. Two reasons I can see, firstly the price was well within my danger zone posted above, and secondly was the strong H1 diversion formed when the price pushed higher up to 28,160.

For me, there is a pretty strong possibility that the Dow Jones peaked today. Still early days, so don't want to sound overly confident, but we should have a pretty good idea by the end of this week. Right now on H1 100sma support, so we'll see if that can send the price back up.

Just stumbled upon this thread. 
Seems like DJIA flew sky high. How did you do? I hope everything is fine. 

[Catweazle]

I'm watching the 27,400 - 450 area today for potential resistance and a turn south if it gets there, now just coming off the 366 level. See what the NY open brings.

[Catweazle]

So having been rejected off of 400, that level definitely seems like it is the one to break for a further move to the upside, though I still have around 450 on the dow, as the highest potential resistance today. There's plenty of support as the longer term momentum is still northbound, but that 450 level if it does get there looks like it could be pretty tough resistance.

Edited June 8, 2020 by Catweazle

[Catweazle]

On the Dow, today's R2 pivot point is at 28,231, so I'm looking at this level or thereabouts as a potentially big resistance level to take profit, and look for a short signal.

[dmedin]

5 minutes ago, Catweazle said:

On the Dow, today's R2 pivot point is at 28,231, so I'm looking at this level or thereabouts as a potentially big resistance level to take profit, and look for a short signal.

Short in an uptrend?

[Catweazle]

38 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Short in an uptrend?

If the level I posted above does offer strong resistance, then of course. I will be taking profit on R1 if it gets there, it's now close, and will then look to short provided I see a short signal.

[Catweazle]

In my first post above, I meant R1 pivot, not R2. Today's R1 I have at 28,231, with R2 at 500. I do not expect the price to reach R2, especially not today.

[Catweazle]

The Dow is looking like it may not even reach today's R1 pivot. We'll see what the New York open brings.

[Catweazle]

As I expected, R1 held the price and looks like a formidable resistance level, at least for now.

For those who are interested, I am an intra-day trader, so always looking to take profits within the trading day. I seldom hold longer positions.

[Catweazle]

580-600 should be a pretty tough resistance area for Dow in the short term, I think may struggle to get above that today. We'll soon find out.

[Catweazle]

Above level is holding atm, but price to me looks to be in a difficult place between support and resistance, so I can't see a clear opportunity yet. I definitely won't go long at this level, not yet anyway, so a short may present itself soon.