FOMC 1900 BST

[Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG]

Evening all,

FOMC is set to cut rates by 25bps tomorrow evening. Substantial volatility likely - current probabilities below:

[Caseynotes]

Was just looking at the CME prob figures, fractionally lower at 79.1%, but difficult to imagine Powell won't go through with it and it will give a boost to the indices as the nay sayers will need to take their speculative bets off.

Edited July 30, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Kodiak]

My guess is initially up and then down

Same as the reaction after ECB 

 

[PandaFace]

“A curious thing has happened,” the IMF observed in a blog post last week, noting that the $100 bill had overtaken the $1 bill in circulation for the first time.

... no hope

[Kodiak]

Only guessing 😎 (SP500 daily)

"The 66-year-old Fed boss has a losing record on Wall Street as it pertains to the market’s reaction to Fed’s statements and his words. He has had two winning days out of the past 11 meetings, with the only positive gains for the market coming in January when policy makers paused a string of rate increases,"

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-the-stock-market-tends-to-perform-when-the-fed-cuts-rates-2019-07-30

 

Edited July 31, 2019 by Kodiak

[Caseynotes]

very useful indicator, drawing in the end of day candle in the morning 😮

[Caseynotes]

Not forgetting some are calling for a 50 BP cut today, also the mon pol statement and presser should give clues as to the increased or decreased chances more cuts latter this year and will also add to the whipsawing.

Fed Funds Target chart;

[Kodiak]

10 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

very useful indicator, drawing in the end of day candle in the morning 😮

I am surprised they missed take it to a new all time high today, maybe "they" are on holiday😁

"The two words from Jerome Powell that rocked the financial markets"

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/the-two-words-from-jerome-powell-that-rocked-the-financial-markets.html

[Caseynotes]

21 minutes ago, Kodiak said:

I am surprised they missed take it to a new all time high today, maybe "they" are on holiday😁

"The two words from Jerome Powell that rocked the financial markets"

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/the-two-words-from-jerome-powell-that-rocked-the-financial-markets.html

yes it was comical, having previously admitted that the Fed had hiked too often too fast said today that this cut was just 'a mid cycle adjustment' and thereby implying that the Fed would soon be back to rate hikes too often too fast, just left everyone dumbfounded. He tried desperately to back track but the damage was done, his reputation was just tarnished before today but now it's unsalvageable, influencers are openly mocking him. 

[Guest phil]

Wednesday's FOMC statement and press conference didn't sound like the economy was in trouble... 

But there's an old saying that "actions speak louder than words", and the first rate cut in over a decade sends a much different message than the standard 'everything's fine' rhetoric we got from Fed mouthpieces.

[Caseynotes]

9 minutes ago, Guest phil said:

Wednesday's FOMC statement and press conference didn't sound like the economy was in trouble... 

But there's an old saying that "actions speak louder than words", and the first rate cut in over a decade sends a much different message than the standard 'everything's fine' rhetoric we got from Fed mouthpieces.

Watching live the charts were relatively subdued until the start of the presser when he opened his mouth, that's when everyone was expecting a bit of insight but instead just got confused then incredulous and then realised they were watching a farce. The collapse of confidence in the Feds ability to assess and make decisions was the undoing rather than actual economic data. 

Trump still silent 🤬😡🤬 lol.