Jump to content

NFPs


Recommended Posts

Hi ,

 

In July 215,000 jobs were added, down from 223,000 (revised from 231,000) added during June, while employment remained unchanged at 5.3%. 

 

Would you be confident enough in having a guess to the nearest thousand as to what the figure will be this time around?

 

, , or any other members, do you have an opinion this month? The closest guess to the nearest thousand will be the Non-farm payroll Champion of the month, and I'll hand the award out on Friday afternoon!

___________________________________

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

 

 

Link to comment
  • 2 years later...

I wont give a guess as to the actual figure that is released today. However, I pulled up a few historical charts to look at previous price performance.

 

First, historical performance:

Date

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Nov 3, 2017

261K

312K

18K

Oct 6, 2017

-33K

82K

169K

Sep 1, 2017

156K

180K

189K

Aug 4, 2017

209K

182K

231K

Jul 7, 2017

222K

175K

152K

 

 

 

 

Note the last three periods, the forecasts have not been met.

 

Looking at the Dow Jones, I have captured below some images of the hourly chart at the point the data is released.

Nov 17

a.png

 

Oct 17

b.png

 

Aug 17

c.png

 

Over the last few months the typical reaction has been a temporary sell-off, followed by resumption of the upward trend. I am keen to follow this month and see how it unravels.

 

You may want to use the hashtag #NFP or #NFPGUESSES on Twitter or social media if you are interested, this figure can create quite a stir in the markets.

Link to comment

Go on, having a guess wont hurt you and there used to be a forum badge for being closest. Though probably the Average Hourly Earnings figure will count more as to whether there will be a rate hike or not from the FOMC data release on Wednesday (13th) unless the NFP figure is devastating.

Link to comment
  • 4 weeks later...

NFP today  1:30 pm, a reasonable sized beat on yesterday's ADP nfp figure may hint at a high figure today and if average earnings is good should strengthen the dollar, which looks cheap, and divert money away from Dow, which looks expensive (all time high yesterday).

 

If this scenario were to play out the knock on affect would likely bring the eurusd down along with ftse and dax.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...