Jump to content

52 Week Price Analysis for Bitcoin


Recommended Posts

Having run the numbers with my trading algorithm I have developed with the IG Index API, I thought that I might offer some insight. As always this is my own thoughts, ideas and opinions. It might help some of the newer investors. 

Let me explain this graph. Whilst I believe I hold some authority around various parts of the internet with regards to this as I have invested alot of time and effort into this system most of the code is released for free, let me attempt to explain. This graph is produced from my own code/trading algo which I am happy to discuss if you so wish. I can do analysis on other stocks, pairs whatever if there is demand for it. 

  • The blue dashed line's are the high and low prices for each week, In this case over the last 52 weeks. The green dots are the "Peak Detection Algorithm", As you can see from the graph it is good at predicting when the price will turn around. Each dot representing a turn around in price. 
  • The grey area is the VWAP, The Volume Weighted Average Price. 
  • The red dashed line is what the price is currently sat at (mid price), As you can also see it is sitting right on a green dot, This is a signal to say that the price is about to turn around. BUT beware. There are ALOT more peaks beneath the VWAP price (Count them) which indicates there is some serious downward pressure there, It's failed to get off the ground. Not many buyers!.
  • I have various rules attached to how this would be traded   So my analysis for the next week is such that there will be a quite a down-tick in price (see the last green dot, It's just started), With significant price pressure downwards. Not to mention 4000 been a "Psychological Price barrier" 

My time is limited but if you wish I can produce graphs based on lower-time frames, Hour's etc to show the turn around points to plan your trades accordingly. 

 

 

Figure_1.png

Edited by TheGuru12
  • Like 1
Link to comment

Thanks for this @TheGuru12, very interesting and clearly a lot of work has gone into it so thanks for the share. I suspect many here would be very interested in something as you suggest on a lower time frame (hourly for example) that they could follow especially as bitcoin is very problematic to read short term.

Did just note before checking the forum that bitcoin popped to the upside just in this last hour but who knows how long that will last with social media organised pump and dumps .

 

Link to comment
32 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Thanks for this @TheGuru12, very interesting and clearly a lot of work has gone into it so thanks for the share. I suspect many here would be very interested in something as you suggest on a lower time frame (hourly for example) that they could follow especially as bitcoin is very problematic to read short term.

Did just note before checking the forum that bitcoin popped to the upside just in this last hour but who knows how long that will last with social media organised pump and dumps .

 

4H over 15M ... It's trading very tightly, Albeit it downward trend. 

Figure_2.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment

Not sure why you are trying to sabotage this thread @TrendFollower, it is titled 'bitcoin' because it is about bitcoin, what is offered is a sharing of experimental algorithmic analysis of bitcoin price action and many will be interested to see how it goes.

Why on earth you are waving red flags about is a complete mystery, no one is trying to sell you anything.  

  • Like 1
  • Great! 1
Link to comment
1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

Not sure why you are trying to sabotage this thread @TrendFollower, it is titled 'bitcoin' because it is about bitcoin, what is offered is a sharing of experimental algorithmic analysis of bitcoin price action and many will be interested to see how it goes.

Why on earth you are waving red flags about is a complete mystery, no one is trying to sell you anything.  

Agree.

however @TheGuru12 - it would be really interesting to see some calls going forwards in real time. Unsure if you have alerts set up (or have the time to post here continually) but would be interesting to see your system call a top / bottom in real time and follow the bitcoin trade. 'Peak detection Algo' sounds cool as well!

thank y ou for sharing

Link to comment

Oh I see, I thought it was just being rubbished for the sake of it. It might be worth reading the OP again because the green dots are the calls. The green dots on the upper line are sell calls while the green dots on the lower line are buy calls. It was somewhat unfortunate that after days of sideways movement in the very hour of posting and the graph showing a short call on the weekly time frame bitcoin price suddenly pumped up, which was why I suggested adding the shorter time frame. The shorter time frame graph posted last night was rushed and not so clear but it actually looks quite good when compared to today's chart. Very interesting. 

image.thumb.png.1fb532c98592e81d428be2e003d7d23e.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...