Jump to content

A very "big and scary" shark!!

Recommended Posts

Hi guys,

Scrolling charts looking for opportunities came into my eyes this lovely shark ready to eat pips in a long-term projection.

From my technical perspective, I see the price breaking below XA 50% Fib retracement, having then a big bounce after touching 2016 higher high and going back into 50%Fib that looks quite solid resistance ( I'll tell better in the next days though :) ). I expect the price to break below the 2016 support, aiming the completion of a nice and smooth pattern slightly below the 1.1000 Major quarter, expecting then a reversal aiming at  1.2000 Major quarter. 

Let me Know if you agree with me or add more info you see something else ;)






  • Thanks 1
Link to comment

Don't really look at this pair @CorbCoropFX but it looks similar to USDCHF.  You will note, if you zoom out a bit, a large flash crash in 2015, which was when the CHF peg to the EUR was removed.  You will see a similar pattern on USDCHF.  Ultimately USDCHF looks set to see a USD rally if and when he market meltdown occurs.  However when this does happen then, most likely in my view, precious metals such as Gold will benefit from a rally too.  As the Swiss economy is heavily backed by physical gold reserves CHF will do better than most other currencies where gold has been sold off (thanks Gordon!).  Therefore logically EURCHF short should be a decent bet but you have to see gold move and probably wait for the current (if proven) EUR rally to end.  That said, I don't track this pair so you cannot really take my views that seriously.

I am interested to know why you seem to favour non USD pairs though.  Regarding your GBPJPY post, again not something I really look at but the Yen is a recognised safe haven. although I expect USD to be much stronger in the coming years.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment

Hi @Mercury, thanks for your reply. Your analysis makes complete sense and I'll take into consideration your views.

Anyway, I do work also on USD pairs but I'm quite new to the financial world (I love technical analysis btw), so I'm basically trying to do some technical on different pairs and post my analysis to receive some feedback and opinions on possible market directions. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment

OK understand @CorbCoropFX.  In that case one piece of advice for practicing technical analysis, pick a few markets and really get to know them.  Best if they are related too.  Technical analysis is not just about following the "rules" but learning how to interpret it on any particular market and, how can I put it, get attuned to the rhythm of the market in question.  Good luck and always practice good risk and money management...

  • Like 1
Link to comment

Well @CorbCoropFX it's all a matter of personal taste.  I can talk about what I do but it takes a bit of learning and practice (like a few years...).  Then again everything does I think.  I did a post recently on my method (summary only) so check that out maybe and if you have any specific questions I'd be happy to answer, or at least point you in the direction of some expertise on the subject (i.e. not me, I'm just a journeyman).

  • Great! 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
  • Create New...