Jump to content

EURGBP


Mercury

Recommended Posts

EURGBP has undergone the retrace I was looking for and must now be a candidate for a turn back down.  The Daily chart shows a significant rally ending turn back in on 7 Apr and the Weekly suggests a drop to and probably beyond 7000.  The retrace could have another leg, coul make it up near 8000 resistance for right now it is at Fib 50% and coincides with W4 end (of the previous bear move) a strong likelihood turning point.  So Shorts here but either with tight stops or very long stops out beyond 8000 seems to be the order of the day.  With GBP and EUR turning vs USD it appears to be a race to the bottom between these two.  The technical analysis suggests the Euro will win that race...  Despite the Brexit alleged uncertainty I would rather be in GBP than Euros right now...  And anyway there is as much or more uncertainty about the EU on the UK leaving than about what happens to the UK itself I think...

 



Link to comment

Interesting analysis Mercury - and as comprehensive as always with the charts.

 

FWIW - the next few hours will tell - either way it will be a great ride.

 

The Brexit is a real interesting one - the Europeans dont want it as it would effectivley end "Europe" - who will pick up our tab?  - not even those Germans have the Leiderhosen pockets deep enough, the French will shrug their shoulders, the Italians and Spanish will put their hands up and claim they have no money and sulk and blame the Brits and the Greeks. The Greeks will want their Marbles back ( again) and the rest will be too busy rebuilding their borders to do anything.

 

The next few weeks will be very interesting and we wil probably end up celebrating even more Shakespeare - " Much ado about nothing"!

 

hee hee

Link to comment

Just as with GBPUSD if you are heading to Europe on holidays maybe buy Euros now?  We have had a nice run down and retrace on this cross recently but what is emerging on the Daily is interesting perhaps.  We have the Neg Mom Div at the previous top (I believe it to be a top) and you can see the retrace in EW1-2 form but the interesting part is the head & shoulders formation being described.  I only really like H&S at true Tops and Bottoms, otherwise they can give false signals but as this is, for me, a top I and keenly awaiting the completion of the H&S formation as that will signal a significant drop.  Ont he way there will be twists and turns for sure, maybe a nice kiss back on the neckline after a break?  Who knows just yet but long term it all looks set for a drop.  Perhaps Brexit threats will be worse for the EU than the UK?

 

Looking also at the Weekly chart you can see price has hit the long term upper tramline at the underside of the Fib 38%, which runs along a good Support/Resistance zone.  The EW count is a bit hard to fit and there are alternatives but all of them suggest a sustained break lower to at least the lower tram is my guess (circa 6800).

 



Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...