Jump to content

the low down on the whole market


Recommended Posts

for those confused or lost or for those looking at the market all wrong here is whats going on.the eur/usd move back in march said it all draghi came out and said that there would be no more interest rate cuts after expanding qe and this created a whipsaw for eur/usd to the upside.then the japanese go neg rates and the yen rallied!why?because this was a big poke in the eye of the fed.the fed could not then raise rates and yellen was forced to go super dovish.with todays non event by draghi it now allows yellen to raise.with the dollar having fallen so much the damage will be limited.the central banks are just taking it in turns to try to supress the usd from going to high because the whole world has large usd denomated debt and if the usd goes to high whole countries will be in trouble.the dow is rising because of international money flows moving into blue chip stocks hiding from the bond market which is about to blow up as the market makes yellen raise rates she does not want to but the market will make her.strong data is now her enemy and the data will only get stronger compared to an exploding europe.the usd is ready to roar and when it does watch out.you wanna bet agaibst a five year uptrend and a country which is raising rates while the rest try to ease then dive in with the current crowd. buy gold sell dollar and lose your shirt.the crowd is always wrong look left in your charts people fight the trend at your own risk

Link to comment

Like the thinking and thanks for sharing.  I am with you on the USD, another interest date rise is inevitable, although the reasons vary depending on whom you are speaking with.  I don't buy collusion between CBs against the Fed in a tag team sort of way, these guys are only interested in keeping their jobs and that means pleasing their political task masters and that means acting parochially.  Draghi didn't do anything because he couldn't or the Germans would have him fired!  It's the same for Carney and all of them really.  My reading is another leg up in the trend for the USD but watch out!  "The trend is your friend, til the bend in the end!"


On Gold I'm not convinced.  Time will tell but if the stock markets get the jitters gold will be a source of safety for many.  A drop is likely just now in my view and then we will see what else is happening in the world that might impact Gold, it's not just a simple matter of interest rates with the yellow metal. 

Link to comment

gold has nothing to do with interest rates nor inflation.gold rises and falls with confidence in government period.i watch cnbc a lot for one reason to see the lies they are an excellent source for finding bottoms and tops.you don't here about gold until its up 20% then its all hey look at gold folks its breaking out.when oil was down in the 20's you get the extreme $10 calls etc they are bullish the dow when its falling and then suddenly turn bearish as it turns.right now its all about how the banks are a buy espically goldman sachs just watch goldman you'll see what i mean.and  look at the chart of gold that is one beautiful head and shoulders pattern.governments are broke and selling their gold canada now has none.gold will bottom first quater next year until then its gonna test $900 the crowd is wrong and the goldbugs are about to get a hard punch in the nose.their metal will be tested pun intended

Link to comment

Well yes at it's most extremes it is about faith in government (well security really) but on a more tangible level Gold responds to confidence in the financial markets (i.e. are my investments safe?).  When people are worried about the stock market crashing they look to the safety of Bonds but when Bonds/gilts are also not seen as safe (and debt was the big issue in the last 2 Bear markets) then gold is the final source of solace.  The problem is that Gold is not exactly cheap right now!


I agree with your views on the media, not just CNBC of course but all mainstream media, they only report stories that have already happened...  I agree the Head & Shoulders on Gold and am tracking it but need to see a neckline break and retest before I consider to valid.  An alternative is the complex wave 4 that results in another rally leg to conclude the overall move.


If the current Triangle (of which the potential neckline is the lower line) is broken then we will probably head down to the next support line (a weekly chart line) at about 1190 and get a rally off this, which could turn out to be the start of a final wave up to about 1400 OR could rebound back off the neck line and descend as you are suggesting.  Commitment of Trader data suggests that hedgies are heavily Long (they like a good trend they do...!).  When I see that I tend to start thinking contrarian thoughts but right now I'm conflicted. 


All I'm saying is that neither scenario is stand out just yet.  On this I'll trade what I see as it develops (currently no trade for me right now, the Draghi spike took care of any cheeky Short idea I was entertaining...).

Link to comment


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
  • Create New...