Jump to content

USDCAD inverse relationship with Oil


Mercury

Recommended Posts

While leaving Oil and stock indices to do their thing I have been having a look at FX.  USD volatility due to the Fed seems to dominate at present and the EUR and GBP crosses are in a difficult W3-4 place with whipsaw action that will kill ya.  AUS and CAD are a bit different, thought still impacted by USD volatility of course but in the case of AUS mining seems to be a bigger factor and for CAD it is Oil.

 

Given that last I thought I would share my analysis on USDCAD to see if anyone has a view.  Having taken some trades short since the turn I have been wondering if we really did see a W5 top or could this be a W3-4 retrace.  If CAD does track Oil and my analysis of Oil is correct that we have not yet seen the bottom then perhaps we have not yet seen the top of USDCAD.  At a minimum, if Oil is in a retrace back down with another leg up to go (not yet sure of that, we could have had the turn back down to W5 and true bottom) then surely USDCAD will rally soon?

 

On the Weekly chart it is clear that this pair has gone higher in the past and also we did not get a negative momentum divergence, which I would expect to see at a major turn, so perhaps this is still to come?

 

On the Daily a decent tramline has been broken but that is often the way with a W4 (as the W4 turn sets up the "real" tramline) and there is support/resistance just below the 62% Fib at 12850ish.  Note no Neg Mom Div on the Daily either at the possible W5 turn!  I have 2 alternative valid EW counts (a 1-5 and an A-B-C) and strong Pos Mom Div building, suggesting a rally is imminent.

 

On the Hourly I have a decent count on the final wave down 1-5 but where will it conclude?  I am waiting for a fresh lower low and Pos Mom Div at the turn back up, maybe at the support/resistance point (12850).  If I see that I will take a Long and hope for at least a decent rally if not a W5 high high on the Daily!

 

here are the charts, look forward to your thoughts:



Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

While we are all waiting on Oil and Stocks to show their hand on medium/long term direction I was looking at this cross to get some clues on Oil.  There does seem to be a strong correlation here and some commentators seem to think we have seen the tops of this market but I am not so sure.  I can easily see another leg up to a higher high with strong Pos Mom Div on the Daily chart and unconvincing Neg Mom Div on the weekly at the previous high.

 

At a minimum I foresee a strong retrace and if this market does turn at, say the 88% Fib (brown line on the hourly) with strong supporting indicators set up then it would corroborate a turn down on Oil for me.

 

Anyone agree (why?) or got another position?

 



Link to comment

I've read some stuff over the weekend about CAD being heavily linked to Commodities.  With carnage about to occur in Oil ( I believe). then USDCAD Long at the right moment could be a winner. Breakout from the wedge would offer a low risk entry to a profitable position...I would have to conclude.  Maybe entry around 12900 if price hit that( of course with a stop loss but that could be quite tight because it could burst out? ) would be a buy signal with an upside of 13100 with a three up? So 200pips? C

Link to comment

Most price gaps are closed and when they are not that is a very strong signal of a trend change (or continuation signal, depending on where it occurs in the bigger picture).  At present I would be expecting these Doha gaps to be closed but that does not negate the trend direction they may be indicating.  An overreaction usually gets an opposing retrace but if the trend has just been signaled then that retrace (currently happening across may markets!) will turn and a more forceful move will ensue.  It is noteworthy that this turn back often happens in or around the point at which the gap is closed...

Link to comment

Has USDCAD just turned?  Pos Mom Div has been building on the Daily for some time and now we have it on the Hourly as well.  Turn is at the Daily 50% Fib, also at support line, with a clear EW1-5 down from the last major high and a small 1-2 completing.  Worth a Short with stop below the recent low for me, especially with Brent Crude apparently turned down.

 



Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...