Jump to content

US Stock Indices


Recommended Posts

Morning  I'm wondering if the last hour of the US500 yesterday gave the wB it turned around at 2037-ish.  This could be the retrace up to wC .  wC if it occurs could be up at your yellow circles area (short zones) - will be looking for momentum divergence up there to indicate strong move down to follow. C

Link to comment
  • Replies 172
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Hi Condor,


That is my current lead option thinking too, however all the main indices have put in a technical A-B-C (the US and FTSE with Yesterdays high).  I think this could be a messy ending with Oil stumbling in the congestion zone.  If stock markets put in a lower high followed by a lower low, especially breaking below the 7 Apr low (US) then we have to conclude that the turn has already happened.  There is always another entry point so no need to panic, need a lot of patience and nerve just now I feel.


Net, I am stalking the turning point I had previously identified but preparing back stop entries in case the markets break lower.

Link to comment

Well, so much for the market dropping. Thank goodness I took my own advice and did the complete opposite of what I though. In the process earning a nice sum with additional positions in play.


I do, of course, have a plan for the sneaky Wall Street for when it does go down  

Link to comment

That would bring up a double top?  No just short, again the Fib 88%, my last ditch on this one too.  All getting very last ditch everywhere isn't it?  Will the Bulls rule the day or will the Bears regain control, ah that is the question.

Link to comment

Exactly, using the Fib. I think lots of people have been wrong on calling the turn for quite a while(outside of this forum) and yesterday I was wrong again on FTSE & Oil.   But I'm persevering as timing might be off but that doesn't mean it isn't coming.  If the price chart says otherwise then I'll have to re-evaluate. C

Link to comment

Ha!  Inside the forum too, myself included.  I am grappling with confirmation bias because I am Bearish but in addition this has been a very strong rally with few, if any, real dips.  As we have always said, the Bulls may have their way and make all time highs again off the back of central bank tinkering but the economy (and I think the earnings will bear this out) don't support valuation at these levels).  The bear is coming but maybe we will have to wait and be patient.


Short & Long term I remain a Bear.  If we breach Nov highs though I will turn Bullish for the medium term and seek to buy dips to higher highs.  You gotta trade what the market deals you and not what you feel ought to happen, this is an important part off getting the trading psychology in good shape and I must admit I still have to cement this into my own trading habit.



Link to comment



Your comments make perfect sense and this has been borne out by my trading in both directions over the last couple of months


I look for short and medium term trends and react as I see fit


Your point regarding trading psychology is very important to make sure those emotions are kept in check

Link to comment

I agree I think short to medium term we may see more highs with the DOW & S&P however the bad news will finally catch up with the US and we will again turn bear and in a big way.

However on the bad news today I have an order in to sell the DOW at 17830 with a SL at 17880 and close the deal at 17710 making my 100+ today.

However it may dip as low as 17665.

Let's see

Link to comment

Very Overbought Rich88.


And now the Dow has hit a very interesting resistance line (the lower line of the congestion zone of the Nov 2015 turn).  This is effectively a double Top if it turns here and so far it has bounced away from the line.  Very strong Neg Mom Div (vs both lower peaks in this rally and the previous turning point making up the double top) and also same on Stochastic and RSI.


On the hourly chart something very interesting is happening, The rally up over the past few days has been remarkably steep (just look at the Triangle it is contained within.  Additionally there is negative divergence on all 3 of my indicators AND, just for fun, a Kiss back on the previous Triangle line.  Such sharp rallies are indicative of so-called exhaustion buying (if only we had volume data...)


The bounce off the congestion zone, the double Top and the set up on Oil gives me the view that we can expect a serious retrace soon (maybe imminently...)  I have a few positions underwater but will hold them a little longer to see how this plays out with stops above the previous turn highs (Nov 2015 - 17978).


Interestingly the S&P is lagging, don't know if that is Bearish or just means it will catch up...






Link to comment

Out of the channel now!  With turns at analytically significant levels across the board and bearish indicators everywhere.  As with the FTSE (see other post) this one could drop at least to the Fib 38% level IF the turn is confirmed with an small scale 1-2 move.  That's 900-1000 points IF it happens...

Link to comment

Are Stock markets finally breaking up with Oil?  The S&P500 hourly chart suggests so, while Oil is charging up the stock markets are sluggish (the Dow is a little more buoyant but then it has more Oil stocks in it).  Also the Russell, a leading indicator in my opinion, is in negative territory today.  A break of the lower Triangle line on both could be a key here...


This all needs to be confirmed with candle closes but one to watch for battered Bears.


Link to comment

The similarities with 2008 (and indeed with 2000) are striking but I'm not sure we are there yet.  Another leg up to a new all time high cannot yet be ruled out but some other scenarios are emerging on the big picture too.  For now it looks to me like this rally is over, with ending Triangles all over the place.  The move down through the Triangle's lower line is strong and a turn and retrace with a lower high is the key to sealing the end of the rally for me.  At that stage I think we would be on for a significant bear run, at least 1000 points on the Dow but after than we are in multiple scenario land again.  As for me, I'm just focusing on sorting this current move, I'll worry about the bigger picture another day.


Link to comment

That is exactly how I see it, except that I believe we are about to endure another Bear market and it could be much much worse that the other two...  The trick, as always, is to figure out the timing of the final turn down.  Is it now?  Is there one more leg up before it starts?  Who knows but more and more people are coming to the realisation that the Bull glory days are over so even if there is a final run up to new all time highs they will be short lived indeed.


Until things clarify swing trading is the only strategy that makes sense to me, now I just need to get better at it, sigh!

Link to comment

Could be, we might get a break and kiss back on the lower line before larger drop.  I fancy price might go sideways with a smallish retrace (maybe back to your wedge line) and then begin a move down.  This could take a day or two to resolve (maybe sometime on Tuesday next at a guess).


The problem with the wedge is the length and degree of accuracy of the touches, especially on the bottom line.  I have an alternative that might work as well, a set of parallel tramlines (grey), which are working in conjunction with the ending Triangle (pink).  Just had a break of the lower tram and if we get a little run down further to complete a small wave 1 then a small wave 2 retrace could provide us with a kiss back on the Tramline.



Link to comment


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
  • Create New...