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Has the Oil rally peaked?


Mercury

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Yes still committed.  When I go in I let my Stop do the worrying for me and move on to other things or I get tied up in second guessing myself.  It may take several hours to resolve and could spike a bit before heading down so why worry?  The chances of hitting the top exact are almost infinitesimally small so you gotta expect and plan for some loss period before it comes good.

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 I have a hit on the upper line of my congestion zone, a small poke through the Daily Fib 38%, which is providing resistance at present.  Of course this could still be a W3-4 turn or a short lived resistance point before a strong push in a rally.  Either way the market should retrace a bit and allow for a stop move to B/E to protect against any rally.  Let's see...

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Is Brent Crude in a mirror ending Triangle formation with USDCAD?  If the lower line is broken Oil could move down fast.

 

Getting movement across many markets in the run up to US open, I have a feeling this US open, or shortly thereafter will decide things for a good many markets.  That's very crystal ballish I know...

 



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Oil is a spiky market because there are just a few big players, not one for trading all the time and if you do trade it at all you have to take these things on the chin.  Actually the spike up wasn't that strong for such an alleged piece of news...

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Surely that cant be right, and if it was it doesnt include Iran so far- and they will keep pumping and fill in the holes to get the revenue and market share.

 

Just been reviewing WTI 1 hour and there is a mini channel north within the  wider uptrend that I posted yesterday.

 

Will continue to analyse - ( no Zees here :smileyhappy:)

 

 

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The more I ponder this the more I look at the economics behind it.

 

We are now close to $42 on crude - at this level the shale boys will want to produce and offload given that the US is almost full and they have loans to pay. That could have a downward effect almost irrespective of Doha - interesting times ahead. The more we rally, the more production comes back on line - but economies are not demanding enough. Will be interesting to see how many  wells have opened up this week in the report.

 

Any comments/thoughts appreciated.

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it will be interesting to see if this rally continues, which their are no doubt some skepticism, as Mercury quite rightly pointed out, the more oil rallies, the more incentive their is for shale producers to switch on the taps again. This is why the opec meeting will by watched like a hawk by many. However if Saudi arabia wants to become a dominant player, they will have to seriously contemplate whether it is in their interest to take part in cutting oil production, when they unlike others can dig it out of the group for $2-4 and still make a profit, or risk loosing market dominance against other Opec producers  as well as shale.

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ya pays yer money, ya takes yer choice.  I predict a lot of hype about the meeting on the 17th, with an associated rally, probably to the $50+ mark and then disappointment as no deal will be struck and the market will drop again.

 

For me there are easier markets than this one, I was interested in a turn and dropp scenario but I'll leave it until another major turn comes onto the horizon (somewhere between $50-55 is my guess at present).

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Although this rally no doubt shocked everyone, there may, be something on this chart that might want us to keep a close eye on, although channeling up, we are a weekly pivot resistance approaching, and momentum also raising a few flags, expecially with the trend.



A few hours later on the chart.





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The answer to my original question is NO, Oil hadn't peeked... Fortunately I made profit on the dip that paid for my stops of late so no worries.

 

Just a quick watch out to the Bulls, my A-B-C premise isn't fully dead yet and 4500 is a critical point.  If price makes a nice 1-5 up to this and turns then that could still be the Wave C...

 

Will be interesting to watch and if other signals are favourable I might chance a tight stop protected Short about there.

 

I think the current retrace is a W3-4, so a final wave up should shed further light.  I'll be waiting for that to show itself before doing anything.

 



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Or, there will be worries that the meeting will not produce the indicated result followed by rumours.  They say buy (or sell) the rumour and reverse the fact...  If Oil does turn down it could be worth a Short and stop protect at B/E against the fact.  This is what I am forecasting to happen but I feel we have a small leg up to go yet first...

 

Worth watching on the sidelines for the right set up.

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Just watching an Oil analyst on Bloomberg and the reason for the inventory drop last week was......... FOG in the channel where the ships enter the US - that amused the ***** out of me after all the the speculation.

 

He was also pointing to this weekend and stating that how will the Saudis and Russians restrict production when they are already pumping at maximum - i.e. it shouldnt have a huge effect. all very interesting, was long from each pullback on crude today - thank you very much .

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There was an article posted by reuters at 1730 about saudi arabia, are hesitating with the oil freeze.

Looking at the chart, similar to last night, it appears that the oil is settling for the moment and possibly we may cap, advances here. i did short last night with a hedge on this as oil is going to be quite volatile, therefore it is of the essence to be careful with sudden news announcements, Divergence of both RSI & MACD present, but caution as always. Quote from FT today:

"Indeed, there is no guarantee of a deal at the weekend. Saudi Arabia has said that it will not participate in a production freeze unless Iran agrees to join as well and Iran has steadfastly committed to increasing its output to pre-sanctions levels.

As it happens, we think some sort of compromise agreement is still likely, even without Iran’s full participation. But given that very few of the countries attending the meeting on Sunday have either the capacity or intention to increase output anyway, freezing production at the current very high level should at best put a floor under prices".

 

 

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