Jump to content

USD/JPY showing where stock indices and Oil might be going?


Mercury

Recommended Posts

Traders seem to flock to the Yen when stocks are under pressure and certainly the USDJPY cross has been closely mirroring the main indices for some time.  The daily chart for this cross tells me that price action has completed a wave 3 down and is in a relief rally to a wave 4 but this is contained in a triangle with 5 clear touches and a recent break below the bottom line.  The question is whether it will now bounce up for another cycle, of even break the triangle to complete a clear A-B-C or carry on down to complete the wave 5?  Whenever it does break down I have 2 targets for the end of the move: the first a weekly chart tramline at about 11000 and the second is the weekly fib 38% off the June 2015 high (10670ish).  When it does reach the end of this wave we can expect a significant retrace rally.  Does this mean a drop and then strong rally in stocks and Oil?  probably to a higher high than where we are presently before a big drop in all of them?  I think so but the challenge is to time the entries as always.

 

here are the charts:



Link to comment

Update on USDJPY:

 

Well as I suspected we got a bounce off the lower triangle so now it looks like another hit on the upper is on the cards.  The market could drop before then so a confirmed break of the lower triangle line would be a Short signal.  Maybe FOMC will be the clarifying trigger for this market.  I was stopped out for no loss on one position and took a 50 pip profit on the other, which I will reinvest into another short at either a touch on the upper triangle line or a break of the lower one.

 

If anyone else is trading this market I'd love to hear your views!

 

Here is the chart:



Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...