Jump to content

The Russia-Ukraine crisis and other Key factors affecting the palladium price outlook


MongiIG

Recommended Posts

In this article we take a look at some of the key supply and demand considerations affecting the palladium price and its outlook, including the most recent influence of the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

PalladiumSource: Bloomberg
 
 Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Tuesday 01 March 2022 

Why has the palladium price been rising since 2016?

Stricter emission controls in the automotive sector saw increased demand for palladium. Palladium is primarily used in catalytic converters for petrol/gas vehicles to help reduce carbon emissions.

Why did the palladium price fall in 2021?

In 2021, supply chain disruptions as the economy rebounded from the Covid-19 pandemic, saw a shortage of semiconductors/microchips used in the motor vehicle industry. The shortage has limited production and demand for the precious metal.

How long will the semiconductor shortage last?

The semiconductor shortage affecting the motor industry remains, although is expected to ease from about the second half of 2022. This is according to Fitch ratings agency and a number of carmakers including General Motors, Ford and Hyundai. Some of the reasons for this include improving capacity meeting a slower demand increase as the strength of the economic rebound (from the Covid-19 pandemic) starts to fade.

How is the Russia-Ukraine crisis affecting palladium?

Norilsk Nickel, Russia’s primary palladium producer accounted for roughly 40% of the global palladium supply in 2021. Palladium prices remain sensitive to the Russia-Ukraine crisis from the threat of disruption to production and exports. Recently imposed sanctions on Russia have targeted Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) international payments as well as banks. This can indirectly inhibit trade if exemptions are not given for these products. So essentially the short-term rise in palladium we are seeing speaks to supply concerns of the precious metal.

Which countries import the most palladium?

The US, Germany, Hong Kong, China and Japan are amongst the largest importers of palladium. This demand for palladium is supported by the large proportion of motor vehicles produced by these regions.

Which countries (other than Russia) produce the most palladium?

South Africa is the second largest palladium producer in the world and accounts for around four times more output than Canada, the third largest producer thereof.

Which are the top palladium-producing companies in the world?

While Norilsk Nickel remains the largest palladium producer in the world, other top miners of the commodity, as well as other platinum group metals (PGMs) are: Sibanye Stillwater, Anglo American Platinum and Impala Platinum.

Palladium – technical outlook

Palladium chartSource: IG charts

 

The price of palladium (June contract) has broken firmly above the 2400 resistance level. The upside move suggests the recent high at 2710 to be the initial resistance target from the move. A break above this level (confirmed with a close above) could see 2875, possibly 3015 as further upside resistance targets.

A pullback towards 2400 might still be considered buyable for trend followers, while a move below 2215 would consider the bullish momentum move to have failed. Traders who are long could consider using the dotted red trend line as a trailing stop loss consideration for the trade.

In summary

  • Tighter emission controls for the automotive sector have helped gains in palladium since 2016
  • 2021 saw a decline in the precious metal as supply chain disruptions impacted demand
  • Russia is the largest producer of palladium through Norilsk Nickel
  • Escalating sanctions could affect exports of the commodity
  • Regions that account for palladium demand form the greater share of global car manufacturing
  • South Africa is the second largest producer of palladium
  • Sibanye Stillwater (after Norilsk Nickel) is the second largest palladium producer in the world
  • A short-term breakout suggests 2710 to be the next upside resistance target for palladium
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...