Jump to content

UK Growth Slows in Q4 – GBP/USD Nudges Higher Against a Strong US Dollar


Recommended Posts

GBP/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis

  • UK GDP increased by an estimated 7.5% in 2021.
  • All eyes on the US dollar after Thursday’s red hot CPI print.
UK Growth Slows in Q4 – GBP/USD Nudges Higher Against a Strong US Dollar

Keep up to date with all market-moving data releases and events by using the DailyFX Calendar

UK Growth Slows in Q4 – GBP/USD Nudges Higher Against a Strong US Dollar

The UK economy grew by 1% in Q4, missing market expectations of 1.1%, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). UK GDP grew by an estimated 7.5% in 2021, following a 9.4% fall in 2020 the report showed. Monthly estimates show that GDP fell by 0.2% in December but is at its pre-coronavirus level (February 2020).

UK Growth Slows in Q4 – GBP/USD Nudges Higher Against a Strong US Dollar

GBP/USD nudged higher post-release with cable trading around 1.3535. GBP/USD traded as high as 1.3645 on Thursday before the latest US CPI release showed US inflation running at a red hot level of 7.5%, prompting market expectations of up to seven 25 basis point rate hikes this year. There is even mounting talk of a 50 basis point hike at the March meeting and the faint possibility of an intermeeting hike soon.

 

GBP/USD 3 MINUTE PRICE CHART – FEBRUARY 11, 2022

UK Growth Slows in Q4 – GBP/USD Nudges Higher Against a Strong US Dollar

Retail trader data show 52.76% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.12 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 12.54% lower than yesterday and 5.40% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.52% lower than yesterday and 11.65% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias.

image.png

What is your view on GBP/USD – bullish or bearish?

 

Feb 11, 2022 |  Nick Cawley, Strategist. DailyFX

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...