Jump to content

Crude Oil Prices May Pull Back But Supply Gaps Are Still in Play


MongiIG

Recommended Posts

CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK:

  • Crude oil prices mostly ignoring Fed-themed macro, supply/demand gaps in focus
  • Pullback possible amid risk-off trade but lasting bearish progress may be difficult
  • Breaking key resistance below $93/bbl might expose the coveted $100/bbl figure
Crude Oil Prices May Pull Back But Supply Gaps Are Still in Play

Crude oil prices have seemingly paid little heed to macro forces recently. Instead, the focus has been on a supply/demand imbalance that saw global output fall short of consumption by an average of 1.4 million barrels per day last year. That has brought cumulative international inventories to the lowest in seven years.

The WTI benchmark had another spirited intraday rally arrested Friday as blowout US jobs data stoked Fed rate hike speculation and drove up the US Dollar, but a downward reversal was tellingly absent. Prices are denominated in USD terms on world markets, so the currency’s rise applies de-facto pressure.

Looking ahead, a bit of re-engagement with broader sentiment trends in the absence of anything notable on the economic calendar seems to be afoot. WTI is edging lower alongside bellwether S&P 500 futures, suggesting that a risk-off tilt may translate into a pullback. The case for follow-through seems suspect for now however.

 

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Prices are testing resistance capped at 92.72, a barrier dating back 8 years. Breaking above it on a daily closing basis looks likely to set the stage for a test of the coveted $100/bbl figure. Initial support is anchored at 84.65, with sellers probably eyeing the swing bottom at 81.90 thereafter.

Crude Oil Prices May Pull Back But Supply Gaps Are Still in Play

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TRADING RESOURCES

Written by Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC for DailyFX. 7th Feb 2022

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...