Technical Tuesday

[MongiIG]

Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

Shaun has worked in financial markets for over ten years. As market analyst, he presents our CFD trading seminars around the country. In addition, Shaun is a regular commentator on the local financial markets, contributing to various media (such as CNBC Africa and Business Day) and writing daily and weekly market reports. He is a registered person at the JSE as well as a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE). You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_IG for regular market updates and insight.

 

[MongiIG]

01 February 2022

Brent Crude Oil

The price of Brent Crude has continued to grind higher towards channel resistance at 93.80 (89.00 currently).

The long-term trend remains firmly up, although the price of crude also continues to trade in overbought over the near term.

Our preferred approach to trading oil is to wait for a correction from overbought territory before finding long entry in line with the prevailing uptrend.

 

Spot Gold

Last week’s break above 1830 failed to reach our guided resistance target at 1875. Instead, the price of Spot Gold has retraced to find support at the 1780 level.

Currently we have a bullish price reversal forming at the 1780 support level and from oversold territory. The reversal suggests 1830 to be the initial upside resistance target from the move.

Traders who are long might consider using a close below 1780 as a stop loss indication for the trade. However, it needs to be considered that the current setup may not provide a very favourable risk relative to reward scenario.

Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

 

[MongiIG]

08 February 2022

Spot Gold

The price of USD denominated gold has rallied after reversing off the 1780 support level last week. The commodity price has however failed to reach the 1830 resistance target just yet.

The short-term price range for gold is currently considered between levels 1780 and 1830. Traders not already committed to a trade on gold might consider waiting for one of the following scenarios to manifest before entering either long or short.

A break above the 1830 level (confirmed with a close) would target resistance at 1875. In this scenario a move below the 1810 level may be used as a stop loss indication for the trade.

Alternatively, a bearish price reversal before the 1830 level could suggest a short entry opportunity, targeting a move back towards support at 1780. In this scenario, close above the reversal high of 1830 might be used as a stop loss indication for the trade.

 

 

Brent Crude Oil

The price of Brent Crude remains in a long-term uptrend, although in the short term we are starting to see a correction from overbought territory.

Our preferred approach to trading oil remains waiting for a correction from overbought territory to take place before finding long entry in line with the prevailing uptrend.

85.90 becomes the initial support target from the correction and first point where we would consider looking for long entry.

 

Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

[MongiIG]

15 February 2022

Spot Gold

The price of dollar denominated gold managed to close above the 1830 mark and rally to our next resistance target of 1875 over the last week.

Currently however, we are seeing a bearish price reversal forming off the 1875 resistance level. Traders who were long might consider exiting their trades on the reversal if profit was not taken at the 1875 target.

A close below 1850, would see 1830 and 1810 as support targets from the move.

Traders looking to re-enter long positions might prefer to wait for a bullish price reversal at one of these support levels, or on a break above (confirmed with a close) the 1875 level.

 

 

 

Brent Crude Oil

The price of Brent Crude has now started to correct from highs and overbought territory. The long-term uptrend does however remain firmly intact.

In turn, our preference remains waiting for long entry on a bullish price reversal closer to one of our labelled support levels, rather than looking to short from current levels.

 

 

Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

[MongiIG]

08 March 2022

Spot Gold

The price of Gold has now broken out of the long-term range on gold which has been in place since late 2020.

The move above range resistance at 1960, now targets the all-time high at 2070. Traders who are not already long the breakout, might hope for a second opportunity to do so should we see a pullback towards support (1960) from overbought territory.

Only on a move (close) below the 1910 level would we consider the upside breakout to have failed.

 

 

Brent Crude Oil

The price of Brent Crude has moved exponentially higher over the last week on the threat of trade disruption through sanctions on Russia.

The three steepening trend lines on our chart highlights this accelerating trend. This phenomenon is often referred to as a price blow off in technical analysis terms. This suggests that recent gains might have capitulated in the near term and in turn, we could see a short-term price correction to follow.

11700 and 10100 provide support targets from the move should a correction manifest. Traders respecting the long-term trend would not look to short the correction, but rather look to accumulate long positions on a pullback towards support.

 

Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

[MongiIG]

15 March 2022

Spot Gold

The Gold breakout highlighted last week, quickly saw the all-time high tested in the days which followed.

The price is however undergoing its first pullback / correction from the high. We are looking for a bullish price reversal from current levels or towards the 1910 level to re institute long positions on gold. In this scenario we would look to a close below the reversal low as a stop loss indication for the trade, while using the 1960 resistance level as the initial target from the move.

The longer-term trend is still considered up, so we are not looking at shorting the current correction. However, if the 1910 level does not hold, we would then look to reassess our trend bias towards trades on the commodity.

 

 

Brent Crude Oil

The price blow off on Brent Crude suggested in last week’s commentary has come to fruition, as the commodity undergoes a sharp correction from overbought territory.

Brent is currently testing trend line support at around 101. Should this level not hold, 85.60 becomes a further possible downside target.

While we are undergoing a short term correction, we continue to respect the longer term trend which remains up. In lieu of this we are looking for a bullish reversal at either trend line or horizontal support to re initiate long positions.

 

 

Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

[MongiIG]

22 March 2022

Spot Gold

After rallying to the high at 2075, the price of Gold retraced back to the 1910 support level.

The price is now consolidating between levels 1910 (support) and 1960 (resistance).

Our preferred approach here is to wait for an upside break of resistance at 1960 to look for long entry, targeting a move back towards 2015 initially.

We are still looking at keeping a long bias on gold (for the time being) in lieu of the price having experienced only its first pullback from a recent high.

Where our upward trend bias will become challenged, is if instead we see a move below the 1910 and 1875 support lows respectively.

 

 

Brent Crude Oil

The price of Brent Crude has formed a bullish price reversal off trend line support around the 10100 level. The bullish price reversal is supported by a sharp move out of oversold territory.

11770 and 12370 provide initial gap resistance and or upside targets from the current move higher.

Traders who are long might consider using a close below the 10780 level as stop loss indication for the trade.

 

Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

[MongiIG]

29 March 2022

Spot Gold

The price of Gold after testing an upside break from the near-term range between levels 1910 and 1960 respectively, has moved back into this range.

In line with the recent aggressive move higher, we still consider a long bias to trades on the commodity.

For long entry we would like to see a bullish price reversal off the 1910 level, or a bullish break above the 1960 level. Only on a move below 1875 would we reassess our current bias to trades on gold.

 

 

Brent Crude Oil

The price of Brent Crude rallied above our initial gap resistance target of 11770 last week. Since then, we have seen a sharp price reversal and in turn retracement back to the 10780 level.

The long-term trend for oil remains up and we continue to favour a long bias to trades on the commodity.

For long entry we are looking for a bullish move off current support (10780) or lower trend line support at 10300. In this scenario, 11770 would again be our initial upside target, while a close below the reversal low would be used as a stop loss consideration for the trade.

 

 

Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

[MongiIG]

19 April 2022

Spot Gold

Our upside breakout scenario for gold has manifested with the price closing above range resistance at 1960. The breakout has seen a move to 1998, short of our 2015 target. The price is also overbought at present.

We continue to prefer keeping a long bias to trades on gold, although recognise the near term overbought signal.

Our preference is to look for new long entry on a pullback from overbought territory towards the 1960 support level, with 2015 the longer-term upside target. Traders who find long entry into a pullback might consider using the mid-point of the range as a stop loss indication (1935).

 

 

 

 

Brent Crude Oil

Last week’s bullish price reversal from 97.80 and oversold territory worked out well, with the price trading through our initial resistance target at 10970. The move above this level suggests 11770 to be a further upside target from the move.

The price of Brent has however moved into overbought territory. In turn, traders who are looking to squeeze out further gains might consider trailing their stop to a two-day low.

 

 

 

Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

[MongiIG]

In the report this week, we look at the following markets:

 

Spot Gold

The price of Spot Gold has continued to retrace from the high at 1997 and has now broken the 1910 support level.

1875 becomes the next support target from the move and if broken, trendline support at 1840 becomes a further target.

We deem the long-term trend to be up despite short term weakness. In lieu of this we are not looking to short the near-term weakness.

We are instead waiting for a bullish price reversal at one of the aforementioned support levels, accompanied by a move out of oversold territory to reinstate long positions. In this scenario, 1910 and 1997 respectively provide upside targets, while traders could consider using a close below the reversal low (should it occur) as a stop loss indication for the trade.

 

 

 

Brent Crude Oil

The long-term trend for Brent remains up as the price continues to trade firmly above the 200-day simple moving average.

In the short to medium term the price appears to be consolidating. We have seen a bullish intraday price reversal off the 9890 support level. Should today’s candle confirm with a higher close this could suggest a range trading opportunity.

In this scenario 11285 becomes the initial upside target from the move. Traders who find long entry might consider using a close below the 9550 low as a stop loss indication.

 

 

 

Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.