Jump to content

EUR/USD Steady as the US Dollar Firms Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls. Where To For Euro?


Recommended Posts

EUR/USD edges higher, with all eyes on US non-farm payrolls | IG US

EURO, EUR/USD, US DOLLAR, CRUDE OIL, FED, NFP, BULLARD - TALKING POINTS

  • Euro is sidelined for now as US Dollar strength dominates markets
  • APAC equities were mixed despite more bad news from Chinese developers
  • WTI crude marched higher again today. Will EUR/USD feel the energy pinch?

The Euro has seen volatility continue to remain subdued as the US Dollar hits pause on its run higher. The market is set to shift focus from a hawkish Fed to the real economy, with jobs data due out in the US today.

According to a Bloomberg survey, the market is expecting a 447k change in non-farm payrolls for December against 210k from last month.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard re-iterated the Fed’s hawkish stance with comments overnight that a rate hike could be coming in March. 2-year Treasury notes continue to trade at higher yields, moving above 0.88% today.

APAC equities have had a mixed session with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index and Australia’s ASX 200 up over 1%. Japanese and Chinese mainland indices were little changed.

Another Chinese builder default was announced today. It comes at a time when the PBOC has surprised markets by reducing liquidity.

US futures are pointing towards a positive start to Wall Street at the time of going to print.

Crude oil made a 7-week high today with the WTI futures contract ensconced above USD 80 a barrel.

Higher oil prices come as tensions continue to mount between NATO and Russia, this time over events in Kazakhstan. With the northern winter about to bite, the geo-political brinkmanship over energy supply might play a larger role for markets going forward.

Alongside the upcoming US non-farm payrolls, Canadian jobs data will also be released.

 

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EUR/USD has been caught in a range between 1.11861 and 1.13860 since mid-November.

The recent low at 1.11861 is just above the June 2020 low of 1.11850. These two levels may provide support.

This sideways movement between 1.11861 and 1.13860 has seen volatility collapse, as shown by the narrowing of the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) based Bollinger Band.

This range trading environment to start the new year appears to be well entrenched for now.

When market ranges tighten, the Bollinger Band might be a signal to watch for a volatility breakout. The initial break outside the 2 standard deviation band is a possible indicator of an emerging trend.

The 55-day SMA may offer resistance, currently at 1.13727, just above the upper Bollinger Band.

Potential resistance could be at the previous highs and pivot points at 1.13830, 1.13865, 1.15133, 1.16694 and 1.16922.

EUR/USD CHART

Chart created in TradingView

Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for DailyFX.com. 7th Jan 2022

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...