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Gold heading into 2022 (Cyclical Analysis)


Carl-Gustav

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This is my first post on IG :)  I will start off with a cyclical analysis of Gold (XAUUSD) heading into 2022.

The next war target from a cyclical perspective is January 6th according to the Socrates Ukraine Model (source: Ask-Socrates.com). This could potentially be the date Russia attacks Ukraine. Russia has been building up its troops close to their border and war could erupt in early January. This should bring the price of Gold up, as it is a hedge against war.

The collapse in government-confidence world wide is also backing up a Gold rally come 2022. The long term target in Gold is $6000/ounce.
If price rallies, it will continue in the angle plotted on the chart, which is derived from the major cycle low.

 

 

 

8057E373-5FB3-43A5-81DC-5CBC3BE3056A.jpeg

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9 hours ago, Carl-Gustav said:

This is my first post on IG :)  I will start off with a cyclical analysis of Gold (XAUUSD) heading into 2022.

The next war target from a cyclical perspective is January 6th according to the Socrates Ukraine Model (source: Ask-Socrates.com). This could potentially be the date Russia attacks Ukraine. Russia has been building up its troops close to their border and war could erupt in early January. This should bring the price of Gold up, as it is a hedge against war.

The collapse in government-confidence world wide is also backing up a Gold rally come 2022. The long term target in Gold is $6000/ounce.
If price rallies, it will continue in the angle plotted on the chart, which is derived from the major cycle low.

 

 

 

8057E373-5FB3-43A5-81DC-5CBC3BE3056A.jpeg

Hi @Carl-Gustav

Welcome to the IG Community and thanks for sharing your first post.

Gold Up, but On Track for Worst Performance in Six Years

image.png

By Gina Lee Investing.com –Dec 31, 2021

Gold was up on Friday morning in Asia but is set for its biggest yearly decline in six years.

Gold futures were up 0.26% to $1,818.75 by 9:59 PM ET (2:59 AM GMT). The dollar, which normally moves inversely to gold, inched up on Friday. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell from one-month highs on Thursday.

The yellow metal has fallen 4% so far in 2021 and is on track for its biggest annual decline since 2015, as global economies continue to recover from the impact of COVID-19. This is despite the continual surge in COVID-19 cases involving the omicron variant.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell from one-month highs on Thursday, but there were no major catalysts and many traders are already on holiday.

Asia Pacific stocks were mostly up on Friday morning, following better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) for December and a rally in U.S.-listed Chinese equities.

The manufacturing PMI was 50.3 and the non-manufacturing PMI was 52.7, with both indexes exceeding expectations and remaining above the 50-mark indicating growth.

Meanwhile, U.S. data released on Thursday showed that the initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 198,000 last week.

In other precious metals, silver and platinum were up 0.3%, while palladium fell 0.5%. Silver is set for its worst year since 2014 with a drop of about 12%. Platinum tumbled nearly 10% and palladium was headed for its biggest annual decline since 2015 with a 20% slump.

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Thank you MongilG,

 

If price fails to close above the monthly downtrend line at 1820 then a decline to the “#cyclical support 2” becomes possible.

Looking at the Daily chart of Gold the 1800 level stands out as an important level to watch. Currently a move down, closing below 1800 will support a negative outlook going into early 2022. However a positive close above 1800 and a close above cyclical resistance warns for a potential rally, testing the monthly downtrend line.

FE1BD28D-8094-4F43-B7F6-0C11D3D56F5E.jpeg

7F128B14-37B2-497A-9043-0991373E78AF.jpeg

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21 minutes ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Thank you MongilG,

 

If price fails to close above the monthly downtrend line at 1820 then a decline to the “#cyclical support 2” becomes possible.

Looking at the Daily chart of Gold the 1800 level stands out as an important level to watch. Currently a move down, closing below 1800 will support a negative outlook going into early 2022. However a positive close above 1800 and a close above cyclical resistance warns for a potential rally, testing the monthly downtrend line.

FE1BD28D-8094-4F43-B7F6-0C11D3D56F5E.jpeg

7F128B14-37B2-497A-9043-0991373E78AF.jpeg

Hi @Carl-Gustav

Thanks for sharing your analysis on Gold.

All the best - MongiIG

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Posted (edited)

There is a daily and weekly reversal lining up at 134.9.

If price reach this level in the first week of trading and a bearish topping  pattern forms on the lower time frames am looking to go short -on a short term basis.

Reason: weekly+daily reversal alignment, leg 3, stochastic overbought, uptrend line resistance.

Opposite, if price close above the reversals on Friday I am going long.

Diagram XAUUSD.png

Edited by Carl-Gustav
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Gold Price Extends End of Year Rally While Safe Haven Bets Tumble

Gold Price Extends End of Year Rally While Safe Haven Bets Tumble

Dec 31, 2021, Warren Venketas, Analyst, DailyFX

Gold Analysis:

Omicron concerns fading.

Trendline resistance being tested.

IG client sentiment bearish.

 

BULLION FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

With higher vaccine efficacy shown by the Johnson & Johnson offering, the seriousness of the Omicron variant has dissipated and sentiment shifting to a more risk seeking approach this New Years Eve. The allure of spot gold as a safe-haven asset should follow suit however the weaker dollar (during the festive period) as outlined in my previous gold forecast, has been sustaining elevated gold prices.

The inflation factor adds an additional layer of sustenance for further upside along with real rates currently in negative territory (see graphic below). Real yields compare the effects of inflation on yields which in this case are greater than yields thus resulting in a negative reading. An increasing real yield increases the opportunity cost of holding gold and with U.S. 10-year yields set to hit 2% in 2022 along with transitory inflation (and of course higher interest rates), gold may be in for a downhill battle.

TREASURY REAL YIELD CURVE RATES 5,10-YEAR:

U.S. real yields

Source: Nasdaq Data Link

GOLD ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Next week we have a lot to look forward to with several high impact dollar related announcements to kick of 2022. PMI is in focus on Monday and Tuesday with both data providers forecasting lower prints but still remain above the 50 threshold. Any significant deviation could result in large dollar price swings and consequently gold.

gold economic calendar

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GOLD PRICE DAILY CHART

spot gold daily chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Gold is once again testing the lower bound of the prior symmetrical triangle (black), now trendline resistance. Prior to this, bulls were unable to close above resistance as evident by the several long upper wicks since late November.

Currently, gold bulls are eyeing Tuesdays swing high at 1820.29 with scope for 1830.00 highly likely short-term. As mentioned earlier this week, this could be the last push to the upside before gold’s fundamental forecast kicks in.

The EMA bullish crossover (blue) has now revealed itself with the 20-day EMA (purple) crossing above the 50-day EMA (blue), yet another short-term bullish signal.

Resistance levels:

  • 1830.00
  • 1820.29

Support levels:

  • 1800.00
  • 1775.00
  • 1752.52

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA POINTS TO SHORT-TERM DOWNSIDE

IGCS shows retail traders are currently distinctly short on spotgold, with 74% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment and the fact traders are net-long is suggestive of a short-term bearish inclination.

image.png

DailyFX and IG.jpg

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The daily bearish reversal stands at 1805.4, we need to close below this level today for a continued moved to the downside. The next level stands at 1798, then 1784.

Looking at the arrays, a continued decline during this week is likely with the opposite trend then implied next week.

Diagram XAUUSD 2.png

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16 hours ago, Carl-Gustav said:

The daily bearish reversal stands at 1805.4, we need to close below this level today for a continued moved to the downside. The next level stands at 1798, then 1784.

Looking at the arrays, a continued decline during this week is likely with the opposite trend then implied next week.

Diagram XAUUSD 2.png

Hi @Carl-Gustav

Thanks for sharing your technical analysis on Gold.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Although the first trading day of 2022 saw the gold price decline by 1.5%, volatility remains subdued for now. This is illustrated by the relatively narrow width of the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) based Bollinger Band.

The price finished last year above the upper Bollinger Band and the decisive move back inside the band could hint at a potential reversal lower.

Just prior to the sell-off, it made a 6-week high at 1831.65, which was just shy of the pivot point at 1834.01. These levels may offer resistance, as well as the November high of 1877.15.

On the downside. support could be at the pivot points and previous lows of 1789.57, 1784.92,

1761.99, 1758.93, 1753.10 and 1721.71.

XAU/USD CHART

Chart created in TradingView

 

Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for DailyFX.com. 4th Jan 2022

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Gold closed below the bearish reversal and is now trading inside of the range displayed on the chart.. It is wise to short the market at the higher level as a continued move down is expected through out the week or at least until January 6th.

Diagram XAUUSD 3.png

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Gold

Hopes of additional gains here have been torpedoed for now, after yesterday’s sharp reversal that prompted a bearish crossover in daily stochastics.

For now the price is holding trendline support from mid-December, which might allow room for a bounce in due course, but a move below $1800 would be a bearish development.

Gold_040122.pngSource: ProRealTime
 
Chris Beauchamp | IG Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 04 January 2022 
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Hi @Carl-Gustav

What are your thoughts on the below:

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Gold could test new highs of $2,100 per ounce this year, according to a resource analyst at fund management company Fat Prophets.

U.S. dollar weakness and inflation are some factors that are likely to boost the precious metal’s prices, David Lennox told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday.

“We do think across the course of 2022, we will see the gold price testing at the all-time record highs, but we can’t see it traveling much beyond that once it gets there,” he said.

Gold prices closed at a record $2,063 in August 2020, according to data provider Eikon. It was trading at about $1,814 per ounce on Wednesday morning in Asia.

We do believe that high momentum in inflation and that lower U.S. dollar is going to drive the gold price higher in 2022.

Lennox said it looks like everything is in place for the U.S. dollar to decline, though it hasn’t happened yet. If the greenback weakens, it would be a “boon” for gold, he added.

Meanwhile, inflation in the U.S. is close to 6% — up from around 1%, he said. Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation and increases in value as the dollar declines, but its track record has been spotty in the past.

“We do believe that high momentum in inflation and that lower U.S. dollar is going to drive the gold price higher in 2022,” he added.

Geopolitical tensions between major military powers could also drive up gold prices earlier than expected, Lennox said.

In particular, Russia’s military presence along its border with Ukraine has been building up, and that’s “a focus point where it could quickly turn to something disastrous,” he said.

“If that happened, then we would see the gold price reacting quite significantly and our …  $2,100 an ounce [target] would probably get here sooner rather than later,” he added. Reported by CNBC

image.png

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Posted (edited)

He is on point with the conflict of Ukraine and Russia.

The Socrates model points to January 6th as a potential breakout in war on the Ukraine model.

From a technical perspective Gold can rally from this point on, on a monthly basis.
 

Diagram XAUUSD 4.png

Edited by Carl-Gustav
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We need to close above the monthly bullish reversals to imply a further advance becomes possible. Note these levels are only valid this month.

When gold starts to elect bullish reversals, that is when we can see a rally.

Here are todays reversals to keep an eye on,

NY Gold Futures, 1D.png

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Gold Prices Grapple with Rising Real Yields and U.S. Dollar Outlook

Jan 5, 2022 |  Warren Venketas, Analyst. DailyFX

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GOLD PRICE DAILY CHART

spot gold daily chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Gold’s year-end rally in 2021 is holding up well considering the slew of opposing forces on the yellow metal. Bulls have been fervent in their defense of the 1800.00 psychological handle and remains a key level that could divide bullish and bearish momentum. This week’s high impact events mentioned above should provide some directional stimulus for gold in early 2022.

Resistance levels:

  • 1830.00
  • 1820.29

Support levels:

  • 1800.00
  • 100-day EMA (yellow)

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT BULLISH

IGCS shows retail traders are currently distinctly long on gold, with 72% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment and the fact traders are net-long is suggestive of a short-term bearish inclination however with the recent net change and plunge into short positions (+58%) the outlook favors gold bulls.

image.png

 

 

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14 hours ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Price did not elect the daily bullish reversal, market remains in a bearish posture, at least on a short term basis. 

89D8B6E4-77EE-4C70-985D-4DE701836C37.jpeg

Hi @Carl-Gustav

Gold Price Set to Struggle Against a Backdrop of Higher US Interest Rates

 

Gold Price (XAU/USD), Chart, and Analysis

  • Gold is back in a familiar range.
  • Trader net-shorts jump over the week.

Gold traders are unlikely to see substantially higher prices over the coming weeks and months after the Fed ramped up its hawkish rhetoric last night, suggesting that interest rates will be raised sooner than current market expectations. The Fed also said that it may begin to shrink its balance sheet earlier than anticipated, a potentially aggressive move when the US economy is still recovering from nearly two years of covid disruptions.

Gold is likely to suffer against a background of higher interest rates as central banks around the world take measures to rein in runaway inflation. One benefit that gold may see during this period of tightening is one of a risk-off asset. Higher interest rates will cause certain asset classes to fall as higher bond yields make them less attractive, while any sharp market sell-off will see investors move into traditional risk-off assets including gold and the Swiss Franc. While gold may suffer from a higher interest rate environment in the longer term, it will still find short-term buyers in times of extreme market volatility.

Gold is now back in the middle of a familiar trading range - $1,763/$1,837/oz. - that held sway from late November last year. The precious metal is also trading just below all three simple moving averages, a negative set-up. These moving averages are tightly bunched and if price action from August and September 2021 is followed, a sharp move looks likely.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Price January 6, 2022

Gold Price Set to Struggle Against a Backdrop of Higher US Interest Rates

Retail trader data show 71.12% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.46 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 6.75% lower than yesterday and 5.38% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.28% lower than yesterday and 42.49% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Gold Price Set to Struggle Against a Backdrop of Higher US Interest Rates

 

Jan 6, 2022 |  Nick Cawley, Strategist. DailyFX

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4 hours ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Hi @Carl-Gustav

Russia sends troops to Kazakhstan to put down deadly uprising

Reuters.pngCommoditiesJan 06, 2022 
 
 
 
© Reuters. A burned car is seen in front of the mayor's office building which was torched during protests triggered by fuel price increase in Almaty, Kazakhstan January 6, 2022. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev© Reuters. A burned car is seen in front of the mayor's office building which was torched during protests triggered by fuel price increase in Almaty, Kazakhstan January 6, 2022. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev

By Olzhas Auyezov

ALMATY (Reuters) - Russia sent paratroopers into Kazakhstan on Thursday to help put down a countrywide uprising after deadly violence spread across the tightly controlled former Soviet state.

Police said they had killed dozens of rioters in the Central Asian country's main city Almaty. State television said 13 members of the security forces had died, including two found decapitated.

A presidential residence and the mayor's office in the city were both ablaze, Reuters journalists said. By Thursday afternoon, the city's airport, seized earlier by protesters, was under firm control of military personnel. Burnt out cars littered the streets.

Earlier on Thursday, several armoured personnel carriers and scores of troops had entered the main square of Almaty, and gunshots could be heard as troops approached the crowd, Reuters correspondents reported from the scene. Later, the square appeared peaceful, with 200-300 protesters still gathered and no troops around.

Unverified video on social media showed troops patrolling Almaty's foggy streets overnight, firing weapons, as well as widespread looting in the city. Masked protesters, some carrying shields and batons apparently seized from police, marched through billowing tear gas along a tree-lined avenue, to the sound of detonations.

The internet had been shut down across the country and the full extent of the violence was impossible to confirm. But the unrest was unprecedented for Kazakhstan, ruled firmly since Soviet times by leader Nursultan Nazarbayev, 81, who had held on to the reins despite stepping down three years ago as president.

"ATTACK ON OUR CITIZENS"

Nazarbayev's hand-picked successor, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, called in forces from ally Russia overnight as part of a Moscow-led military alliance of ex-Soviet states. He blamed the unrest on foreign-trained terrorists who he said had seized buildings and weapons.

"It is an undermining of the integrity of the state and most importantly it is an attack on our citizens who are asking me... to help them urgently," he said.

Moscow said it would consult with Kazakhstan and allies on further measures to support the Kazakh authorities' "counter-terrorist operation" and called the uprising a foreign-inspired attempt to undermine the country's security by force.

Neither Kazakhstan nor Russia provided evidence to support the claim of foreign involvement.

The secretariat of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation said advanced units of Russian paratroopers were in the country and had "already begun to fulfil their assigned tasks."

Troops being sent included units from Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as well as Russia, the secretariat said. It did not disclose the overall size of the force.

The uprising, which began as protests in the west of the country against a New Year's Day fuel price hike, had swelled dramatically on Wednesday, when protesters stormed and torched public buildings in Almaty and other cities. They chanted slogans against Nazarbayev, and in at least one case looped ropes around a bronze statue of him, trying to pull it down.

Tokayev initially responded by dismissing his cabinet, reversing the fuel price rise and distancing himself from his predecessor, including by taking over a powerful security post Nazarbayev had retained.

But the actions failed to mollify crowds who accuse Nazarbayev's family and allies of amassing vast wealth from oil and minerals while the nation of 19 million remained poor.

Nazarbayev stepped down in 2019 as the last Soviet-era Communist Party boss still ruling a former Soviet state. But he and his family kept posts overseeing security forces and the political apparatus in Nur-Sultan, the purpose-built capital bearing his name. He has not been seen or heard from since the unrest began.

The swift arrival of Russian troops demonstrated the Kremlin's strategy of rapidly deploying force to safeguard its sphere of influence in the ex-Soviet Union. Since late 2020, Russia has shored up the leader of Belarus in the face of a popular uprising, halted a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and, to the alarm of the West, massed again near Ukraine, which Russia invaded eight years ago.

The protesters "are Kazakhs, and Tokayev will try putting them down with Russian troops. That will not look great for Moscow," tweeted economist Tim Ash, who specialises in the region.

Western countries have called for calm. Neighbour China called the events an internal matter for Kazakhstan.

Under Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan gained a reputation for stability, attracting large-scale foreign investment. Though political opposition was firmly curtailed, the state was regarded as less repressive and volatile than ex-Soviet neighbours.

Kazakhstan's dollar-denominated sovereign bonds suffered fresh falls on Thursday. Longer dated issues have plunged, losing around 7 cents since the start of the week.

Kazakhstan is the top global producer of uranium, and the unrest prompted an 8% jump in the price of the metal that fuels nuclear power plants. Rival producers in North America saw their share prices surge, including Canada’s Cameco, up nearly 12% so far this year.

Kazakh uranium miner Kazatomprom said on Thursday it was operating normally with no impact on output or exports.

The country is also the world's second-largest miner of bitcoin after the United States. Bitcoin's "hashrate" - the measure of computing power of machines plugged into its network - dropped by over 10% on Wednesday after Kazakhstan's internet was shut off, according to crypto mining firm BTC.com.

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Oil extends rally on Kazakhstan unrest, Libyan outages

Reuters.pngCommoditiesJan 06, 2022 
 
 
 
Oil extends rally on Kazakhstan unrest, Libyan outages© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Towers and smokestacks are silhouetted at an oil refinery in Melbourne June 21, 2010. REUTERS/Mick Tsikas/File Photo

By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose sharply on Thursday, extending a rally from the previous session, on escalating unrest in OPEC+ oil producer Kazakhstan and supply outages in Libya.

The global benchmark Brent crude futures rose $1.09, or 1.4%, to $81.89 a barrel, by 1054 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.17, or 1.5%, to $79.02 a barrel.

Both contracts were trading at their highest since late November.

Brent's 6-month market structure stood at about $4 a barrel in backwardation- where current prices trade at a premium to future prices - its widest since late November and usually a sign of a bullish market.

Russia sent paratroopers into Kazakhstan on Thursday to help quell a countrywide uprising after deadly violence spread across the tightly controlled former Soviet state.

"The political situation in Kazakhstan is becoming increasingly tense," Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) said.

"And this is a country that is currently producing 1.6 million barrels of oil per day."

There were no indications that oil production has been affected so far.

Libyan oil output is down by over 500,000 barrels per day due to pipeline maintenance and oilfield shutdowns.

Prices rallied despite a surge in U.S. fuel stocks last week.

U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell last week while gasoline inventories surged more than 10 million barrels, the biggest weekly build since April 2020, as supplies backed up at refineries due to reduced fuel demand. [EIA/S]

Also, minutes from a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that showed policymakers may raise rates more quickly than markets anticipated weighed on riskier assets such as oil. [MKTS/GLOB]

OPEC+, a group that includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, agreed on Tuesday to add another 400,000 bpd of supply in February, as it has done each month since August.

"Our reference case now assumes the alliance will fully phase out the remaining 2.96 million bpd of oil production cuts by September 2022," JP Morgan analysts said in a note.

 

"With signs of demand withstanding the Omicron variant, low stocks and increasing market vulnerability to supply disruptions, we see the need for more OPEC+ barrels," the bank said. JP Morgan forecast Brent prices to average at $88 a barrel in 2022, up from $70 last year.

Meanwhile, the world's top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, cut the official selling price for all grades of crude it sells to Asia in February by at least $1 a barrel, three sources with knowledge of the matter said on Thursday.

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1 hour ago, MongiIG said:

Hi @Carl-Gustav

Russia sends troops to Kazakhstan to put down deadly uprising

Reuters.pngCommoditiesJan 06, 2022 
 
 
 
© Reuters. A burned car is seen in front of the mayor's office building which was torched during protests triggered by fuel price increase in Almaty, Kazakhstan January 6, 2022. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev© Reuters. A burned car is seen in front of the mayor's office building which was torched during protests triggered by fuel price increase in Almaty, Kazakhstan January 6, 2022. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev

By Olzhas Auyezov

ALMATY (Reuters) - Russia sent paratroopers into Kazakhstan on Thursday to help put down a countrywide uprising after deadly violence spread across the tightly controlled former Soviet state.

Police said they had killed dozens of rioters in the Central Asian country's main city Almaty. State television said 13 members of the security forces had died, including two found decapitated.

A presidential residence and the mayor's office in the city were both ablaze, Reuters journalists said. By Thursday afternoon, the city's airport, seized earlier by protesters, was under firm control of military personnel. Burnt out cars littered the streets.

Earlier on Thursday, several armoured personnel carriers and scores of troops had entered the main square of Almaty, and gunshots could be heard as troops approached the crowd, Reuters correspondents reported from the scene. Later, the square appeared peaceful, with 200-300 protesters still gathered and no troops around.

Unverified video on social media showed troops patrolling Almaty's foggy streets overnight, firing weapons, as well as widespread looting in the city. Masked protesters, some carrying shields and batons apparently seized from police, marched through billowing tear gas along a tree-lined avenue, to the sound of detonations.

The internet had been shut down across the country and the full extent of the violence was impossible to confirm. But the unrest was unprecedented for Kazakhstan, ruled firmly since Soviet times by leader Nursultan Nazarbayev, 81, who had held on to the reins despite stepping down three years ago as president.

"ATTACK ON OUR CITIZENS"

Nazarbayev's hand-picked successor, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, called in forces from ally Russia overnight as part of a Moscow-led military alliance of ex-Soviet states. He blamed the unrest on foreign-trained terrorists who he said had seized buildings and weapons.

"It is an undermining of the integrity of the state and most importantly it is an attack on our citizens who are asking me... to help them urgently," he said.

Moscow said it would consult with Kazakhstan and allies on further measures to support the Kazakh authorities' "counter-terrorist operation" and called the uprising a foreign-inspired attempt to undermine the country's security by force.

Neither Kazakhstan nor Russia provided evidence to support the claim of foreign involvement.

The secretariat of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation said advanced units of Russian paratroopers were in the country and had "already begun to fulfil their assigned tasks."

Troops being sent included units from Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as well as Russia, the secretariat said. It did not disclose the overall size of the force.

The uprising, which began as protests in the west of the country against a New Year's Day fuel price hike, had swelled dramatically on Wednesday, when protesters stormed and torched public buildings in Almaty and other cities. They chanted slogans against Nazarbayev, and in at least one case looped ropes around a bronze statue of him, trying to pull it down.

Tokayev initially responded by dismissing his cabinet, reversing the fuel price rise and distancing himself from his predecessor, including by taking over a powerful security post Nazarbayev had retained.

But the actions failed to mollify crowds who accuse Nazarbayev's family and allies of amassing vast wealth from oil and minerals while the nation of 19 million remained poor.

Nazarbayev stepped down in 2019 as the last Soviet-era Communist Party boss still ruling a former Soviet state. But he and his family kept posts overseeing security forces and the political apparatus in Nur-Sultan, the purpose-built capital bearing his name. He has not been seen or heard from since the unrest began.

The swift arrival of Russian troops demonstrated the Kremlin's strategy of rapidly deploying force to safeguard its sphere of influence in the ex-Soviet Union. Since late 2020, Russia has shored up the leader of Belarus in the face of a popular uprising, halted a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and, to the alarm of the West, massed again near Ukraine, which Russia invaded eight years ago.

The protesters "are Kazakhs, and Tokayev will try putting them down with Russian troops. That will not look great for Moscow," tweeted economist Tim Ash, who specialises in the region.

Western countries have called for calm. Neighbour China called the events an internal matter for Kazakhstan.

Under Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan gained a reputation for stability, attracting large-scale foreign investment. Though political opposition was firmly curtailed, the state was regarded as less repressive and volatile than ex-Soviet neighbours.

Kazakhstan's dollar-denominated sovereign bonds suffered fresh falls on Thursday. Longer dated issues have plunged, losing around 7 cents since the start of the week.

Kazakhstan is the top global producer of uranium, and the unrest prompted an 8% jump in the price of the metal that fuels nuclear power plants. Rival producers in North America saw their share prices surge, including Canada’s Cameco, up nearly 12% so far this year.

Kazakh uranium miner Kazatomprom said on Thursday it was operating normally with no impact on output or exports.

The country is also the world's second-largest miner of bitcoin after the United States. Bitcoin's "hashrate" - the measure of computing power of machines plugged into its network - dropped by over 10% on Wednesday after Kazakhstan's internet was shut off, according to crypto mining firm BTC.com.

It is very interesting to see all this unfold on the date set by the model.

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1 hour ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Todays reversals to pay attention to.

Diagram XAUUSD Reversals.png

Lets see how US NFP and unemployment rate will affect Gold price until daily candle close. Will this give a directional bias for next week for gold ?

  • Great! 1
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Next week looks choppy with directional changes from the 7th-12th January.

However the beginning on next week should trade in a bullish posture according to the arrays.

Sticking to the reversal system, we need a closing above 1795.8 today to imply a continued bullish move to the upside.

 TD Combo and Sequential just perfected a Buy Setup, supporting a bullish outlook into next week.

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