Jump to content


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 67
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • 2 weeks later...

  wrote  'so, what is your analysis telling you that it will do ?'   That of course is the easy bit.  Watch and react, don't try to predict.


The market has come up to a significant level (107.30) and one side or the other will take control, who cares which? Because once a side has control they will push price to the next significant level in their direction, that's the important bit.


The signif level is 107.30 which is the monthly support level from the September low (see daily chart).

Successfully retesting that now on the hourly chart, that showed more buy than sell orders so there must be unfilled buy orders remaining on that level. Yes price may come back down for a second retest but it is less likely (probability) as it has just retested 107.30 and sellers will know there will be unfilled buy orders waiting there, they know they will be better off selling higher at 107.90.


The First Trouble Area ahead (FTA is always the prior immediate high/low)  is at 107.90.

If the buyers breach 107.90 then the next targets are as per the daily chart all things being equal which they never are, for example there is the FOMC minutes tonight.










Link to comment

But, but, probabilities, my 10 pip stop below 107.30 still looks fine plus the benefit of using levels based on the higher (monthly) chart, hedge fund managers consider anything less than a weekly chart is just noise, admittedly they are working with a 300 pip stop but there is no reason I can't take advantage if opportunity presents.


Question: should I move my stop loss to break even? With a well defined level and a tight stop of course the answer is no, because the possibility of failure will always remain while the potential for multiple 'R' gains remains high.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
  • Create New...