Jump to content

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY May Drop as Retail Traders Go Long


Recommended Posts

 

 

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, RETAIL TRADER POSITIONING - TALKING POINTS

  • Retail traders continue betting on Australian Dollar strength
  • From a contrarian view, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY may fall
  • What are key technical levels to watch out for to the downside?
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY May Drop as Retail Traders Go  Long

IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) is showing that most retail traders are betting that the Australian Dollar may appreciate against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. In other words, they are net-long AUD/USD and AUD/JPY. IGCS can at times be a contrarian indicator. If this trend in positioning continues, the Aussie Dollar could be vulnerable ahead. Check out the recording of my webinar above for the full synopsis!

AUD/USD SENTIMENT OUTLOOK - BEARISH

The IGCS gauge shows that roughly 69% of retail traders are net-long AUD/USD. Since the majority of traders are long, this suggests prices may continue falling. Upside exposure has increased by 2.84% and 3.6% over a daily and weekly basis. The combination of overall and recent changes in positioning is offering a stronger bearish-contrarian trading bias.

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY May Drop as Retail Traders Go Long

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The Australian Dollar remains in a neutral state against the US Dollar after AUD/USD bounced off late-2020 lows (0.6991 – 0.7016). Still, the broader technical outlook arguably remains tilted to the downside given that the downtrend since February is still intact. A breakout under the 0.7106 inflection point may open the door to a retest of late-2020 lows. On the other hand, clearing resistance at 0.7224 exposes the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

 

AUD/USD DAILY CHART

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY May Drop as Retail Traders Go Long

Chart Created in Trading View

AUD/JPY SENTIMENT OUTLOOK - BEARISH

The IGCS gauge shows that about 55% of retail traders are net-long AUD/JPY. Since most investors are long, this suggests that prices may continue falling. This is as downside exposure decreased by 8.0% and 31.3% compared to a day and week ago respectively. The combination of overall and recent shifts in positioning are offering a bearish contrarian trading bias.

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY May Drop as Retail Traders Go Long

 
 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

AUD/JPY is idling just under the key 81.65 – 82.02 inflection zone, with the pair in a broader neutral state since earlier this year. Clearing the inflection range exposes the critical 85.44 – 86.26 resistance zone, as well as the 50-day SMA. Turning lower places the focus on the 79.84 inflection point before targeting the 78.84 – 78.00 support zone. Clearing the latter would open the door to resuming the downtrend.

AUD/JPY DAILY CHART

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY May Drop as Retail Traders Go Long

Chart Created in Trading View

*IG Client Sentiment Charts and Positioning Data Used from December 21st Report

Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com. 22nd December 2021.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...