Jump to content

Gold Price Rise Hits a Wall on Hawkish Fed Comments, Key US Data Eyed


MongiIG

Recommended Posts

GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK:

  • Gold prices retreat as Fed Governor Waller calls for faster QE taper
  • Fed Funds futures, Treasuries curve mark upshift in rate hike outlook
  • Critical near-term chart support level looks to be anchored at $1827

Gold Price Rise Hits a Wall on Hawkish Fed Comments, Key US Data Eyed

Gold prices retreated Friday as Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller said he favors a faster pace of tapering QE asset purchases. While echoing the US central bank’s party line on inflation – linking it to supply-chain disruptions and otherwise ‘transitory’ factors – Waller worried aloud about embedding price gains into wages. This might make for stickier reflation than the Fed anticipates.

This sparked an upshift in the markets’ expected rate hike path, as priced into Fed Funds futures. Two full rate hikes were are now baked in for 2022 while the probability for a further three in 2023 has receded somewhat. The Treasury yield curve painted a similar picture: the front end (3-month to 2-year rate spread) steeped while the belly (2- to 5-year) and the long end (5- to 10-year) flattened.

Looking ahead, November’s PMI survey data as well as the Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge are in focus. A revised look at third-quarter GDP is also due. Taken together, these outcomes may inform the extent to which price pressures threaten to dampen the pace of economic recovery. If they spur on a further hawkish shift in US monetary policy bets, gold seems likely to suffer.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – RALLY STALLS AT FORMER SUPPORT. NOW WHAT?

Gold prices pulled back from support-turned-resistance at 1870.75, with negative RSI divergence marking ebbing upside momentum and setting the stage for a reversal. From here, a test of support anchored at 1827.51 may be pivotal: holding off sellers here would paint the pullback as corrective within a larger upward break, while a downward breach confirmed on a daily closing basis may speak to near-term capitulation.

Gold Price Rise Hits a Wall on Hawkish Fed Comments, Key US Data Eyed

Gold price chart created using TradingView

GOLD TRADING RESOURCES

 

Written by Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC for DailyFX. 22nd November 2021.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...