Jump to content

NZD/USD Trade Idea


TomB

Recommended Posts

, one of our market analysts, has provided the following trading idea. Feel free to take a look, and let us know what you think.

 

Trade idea: Sell NZD/USD at $0.6490, stops at $0.6588

 

The NZD has been the weakest G10 currency over past 24 hours relative to the USD, but then this has been the case over the past month as well, with the pair falling 4.9%.

 

From a momentum perspective being short NZD/USD makes a lot of sense.

 

Is there any reason to be fighting the strong trend lower at present? I certainly wouldn’t be and there are no clear reversal signs on the daily or weekly charts. When you look at various fundamentals inputs it also suggests shorts are absolutely warranted. Last night’s dairy auction in New Zealand saw an 11% decline in whole milk powder, although futures pricing had largely been predicting this. New Zealand’s terms of trade have been improving of late, but this auction will not reflect well for Q3 GDP on 17 December.

 

Prior to the Q3 GDP print, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce potential changes to its cash rate and as it stands 15 of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg see a 25 basis point cut. This is not fully reflected in the swaps markets, so I would not be surprised to see the NZD drift lower into the RBNZ meeting. On the other side of the equation, the two key event risks for the USD will be the November non-farm payrolls on 5 December and the 17 December FOMC meeting.

 

It’s not hard to see why NZD/USD is trending lower as this is central bank divergence in its purest form.

 

Interestingly, there is an almost tick-for-tick correlation between NZD/USD and the NZ/US two-year bond spread, where US bond yields are moving up much more aggressively relative to that of New Zealand. These changes positively impact the USD valuation, with global money managers seeing higher potential returns in the US bond market. For NZD/USD to continue trading lower we will need to see US bond yield tick higher and given the market is priced at a 68% probability of a move from the Fed in December there is a real possibility we could see further upside in US yields and therefore USD strength.

 

Technically, I would specifically look at the two-hour chart where we can see a compelling downside break of the November triple bottom at $0.6500. Yesterday we saw a re-test of the former support and a rejection and should be seen a bearish development. On the daily chart momentum and trend indicators are headed lower, suggesting a move into the August-September lows could feasibly come into play.

 

In terms of risk management I feel placing stops above the 11 November high of $0.6588 is prudent. I would take a much more neutral stance on NZD/USD on a closing break of the October downtrend at $0.6690. I am keen to target the $0.6300 to $0.6250 area.

 

(2 hour chart)

 

trade.jpg

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Link to comment

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...