Jump to content

USD Breaking News: Hawkish Pressure Increases as CPI Beats Estimates, DXY Higher


Recommended Posts

U.S. DOLLAR ANALYSIS

  • U.S. CPI data exceeds forecasts – Core:4.6%, Headline: 6.2%.
  • Dollar pops as hawkish narrative strengthens.

shutterstock_1030424056-1 (1).jpg

DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

HEADLINE AND CORE INFLATION BEAT ESTIMATES

Market expectations were crushed by both core and headline inflation prints for October which adds additional pressure onto the Fed to bring rate hikes forward. The patient approach has already divided opinions and may further exacerbate the current division or potentially convert individuals in the dovish camp.

US CPI October

Source: DailyFX economic calendar

PRE-INFLATION BUILD UP

FED SPEECHES MAY POINT TO SOONER THAN EXPECTED RATE HIKE

The start of this week saw numerous Fed officials eluding to the fact that interest rates could be raised in 2022 and not 2023 as anticipated, along with a quicker end to asset purchases (tapering). This comes after inflation has avoided the transitory rhetoric for now and proves to be more “sticky” than initially thought by some; primarily Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

EVERGRANDE GIVES BOOST TO HAVENS

Yesterdays U.S. PPI data came in as expected which did little in the way of USD price action however today an uptick in safe-haven currencies including the dollar has propped the Dollar Index (DXY) above the key 94.00 level. Evergrande debt woes are back in play sparking contagion fears once more.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) WEEKLY CHART

DXY weekly chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

The weekly DXY chart above may be suggestive of a rising wedge pattern (black) which could see a weaker dollar should prices break (candle close below) wedge support.

Contrary to the rising wedge, the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has recently crossed above the 50-day EMA, also referred to as a bullish crossover and may indicate further upside to come.

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) DAILY CHART

DXY daily chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

The daily chart shows the DXY pushing higher immediately after the announcement which bring into consideration the recent swing high at 94.61. This looks likely with subsequent resistance at 95.00. Price action within the channel (black) could continue its waver towards channel resistance.

Resistance levels:

  • 95.00
  • 94.61

Support levels:

  • 94.00
  • 93.35
  • 93.23

Written by Warren Venketas for DailyFX.com. 10th November 2021.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...