Jump to content

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Poised for New Leg Lower


Recommended Posts

EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

  • EUR/USD has been trading sideways for several weeks.
  • Sideways price action is set to give-way to lower levels.

The Pound to Euro exchange war and the impact of Covid-19 on forex markets  - Chronicle Live

 

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: EURO POISED FOR NEW LEG LOWER

The last time I posted commentary on the Euro I was discussing its potential to continue to extend the trend lower off the May high. Nothing has happened over the past week or so to change this outlook, if anything the bias is growing stronger with each day that EUR/USD fails to reverse higher.

The low to watch at the bottom of the recent congestion pattern is 11524, a break below should kick off a new leg lower that will have an important level quickly in focus. The March 2020 spike-high is a meaningful level to watch for a reaction at. It resides at 11495.

A bounce could develop, but is anticipated to be transient in nature as the trend off the May high looks set to persist. Beyond that point the next level to watch is 11423, a swing-high created during the spring of 2020, and in confluence with that level could be the underside trend-line running lower from June.

The June 2020 high and June to current trend-line may not be in confluence if the slide develops slowly. In any event, neither of these levels are major types of support, but should be respected should we see the market react upon testing.

To turn the picture bullish EUR/USD has its work cut out for it. A rally above the downtrend line from May and 11700 is needed to snap the bearish sequence. Even then we would need to see such rally hold up on a pullback without it turning into an outright decline.

For now, continuing to run with a fairly aggressive bearish bias until there is evidence to do otherwise.

EUR/USD DAILY CHART

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD Chart by TradingView

 

Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst, 10th November 2021. DailyFX

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
×
×
  • Create New...