Jump to content

Inflation & Debt mountain

Recommended Posts

Some Central bankers and other economists get carried away and think we high inflation.

Some central banks policies as to create inflation in an deflationary period.

How confused are they?

Inflation has several meanings. For example we have hyperinflation in the stock markets valuations created from QE. Also, share buybacks  is NOT investing in their own companies, but an illusion since nothing is invested in goods and services.

This is not an experiment that some bankers have suggested. It has been done before with the same techniques, all to lead to a disaster for the average person and investor.

Mountain of debt that governments have built up, even PRIOR TO THIS EPIDEMIC, is a result of voters buying by spend, spend spend money they do not have. And central bankers and banks encouragement advises -- let the future pay for it while the bankers milk huge profits from all this, until the domino collapses.




  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment

I don't think I've mentioned this on here - but the stock market in 2000 - REPEATED the 1929 cycle - a quick look at a chart of the Nasdaq100 from 2000 and the DOW from 1929 confirms this, as the formation is similar and as you'd expect, anyway.............

The stock market cycle from 2000 has played out beautifully - anyway to cut a long story short - IF, the Interest rate cycle repeated along with the stock market then the following dates should be observed and so far to date it looks again as if it is playing out nicely

1929-1951 = 22 years 

2000 + 22 years = !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wrote a thread on TIME CYCLES - the 1st post shows and explains the cycle and the sequence - backtrack this cycle and it hit 1929 too

During the DOWN/DEFLATIONARY cycles you'll find that central banks throw the kitchen sink at efforts to stimulate things with little effect - the cycles down, nothing can stop it as its deflationary, BUT......

during the UP/INFLATIONARY cycles you find that price inflation, commodity spikes etc happen and the tools to combat that are Interest rate rises, tax rises etc etc etc

I remember back in 2012 ish being told "Low rates are hear forever" by someone on some forum [not this one] - well lets see - I say rates will be back to 5-7% within the next 5 years [most likely a hell of a lot quicker]

As humans, we have to position ourselves so that we are not burnt by adverse events, govts have proved they can't prevent crashes and the like

PS - Stock Market - My expectation based on my analysis is its UP until the mid 2030's - obviously there will be plunges like 2020 along the way, but no major crash

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
  • Create New...