Jump to content

Where next for AUDUSD?


Recommended Posts

What a difference a day makes!  When you think about it the move up yesterday was too strong to end there so both the Daily Tramline pair and the tentative Triangle have been proved wrong it seems and this market continues up, most likely now to a new higher high Wave 4 as per the alternative scenario I had been tracking.  Unless something truly unexpected happens like a massive rally I think we are down to one scenario only now unless there is a last minute reversal back down.  The higher high could come in the form of a double top of course.


I have redrawn my chart based on the new price information and have a large parallel tramline pair (blue).  The top line of which, plus the previously drawn green line, intersects with the down sloping tramline from the Weekly chart at various points in September and hanging above this is the Weekly chart Fib 50%.


The EWT A-B (Pink) are still valid so it just remains to be seen if the market falls short of the April 2016 high, makes a double top (rare) or pushes on to a new high Wave 4 (Purple).  Given other FX set ups I suspect we will see the latter with the USD strength returning toward the middle of the month with Sept 22 FOMC as the key determining factor for all USD FX pairs.  For me it is most likely that once a turn is put in this market will drop away as USD goes on a significant rally.




Link to comment

I think the AUD $ has been this years currency EWT mind twister lol. This is why anybody in this business knows that this is a constant ever learning process. Anyway from a perspective we could now be finally now resume the main overall trend to the downside and start W5 as of late Thursday the 8th. However I am not sure if this is dollar influence or the Australian economy just taking a hammering or their is expected more QE or interest rate cuts. Regardless of what the driving fundamental factors are, I don't think at this point in time it would be unfair to suggest the analysis charted below. By all means, suggest a different perspective.

Link to comment

I have exactly that scenario too  and agree this market has been challenging during this retrace with multiple scenarios and signals coming and going.  Accordingly I could not yet call this scenario and would need to see a break through my lower tramline and also the support zone (and Fib 50% from previous high-low).


The alternative scenario of a higher high wave 4 remains a valid one (see alternative EWT count in red).  Therefore we have the classic case of a pivotal point at or around my lower tramline with both a bounce back rally and a breakout down being possible.  Looking a the hourly chart I have an interesting set up with a confluence of the Daily tramline (remember it doesn't map right on PRT) a set of hourly parallel tramlines and the Fib 88% off the 31 Aug low.  The strength of the move down is hard to trade against but often such moves produce equal or stronger counter moves and thee move down can be described as an A-B with a 1-4 so far of C.


Therefore my bias (although not strong) is for a rally at the critical point so I will gear up for that an only consider a short on a break of the lower fib 50% level (7490).


Link to comment

Hi Mercury. As stated before, having this alternative W count can always help plan for a trade of a given alternative scenario. I think i would be correct, in you suggesting that this would be a double zig zag, which would therefore correspond with your alternative W count.

Because of the nature of this current complex market, and i mean seriously irritating market, i think we must also consider that if the EUR, GBP and Yen have their own bulls and bears to complete it would not be irrational to suggest that the aud $ would also have more to gain. Therefore if we fail to pass the end of W1 then the alternative W count is most likely in play.

Link to comment

Don't know much about double zigzags and all that  but I am wondering if we may get a double bottom at this strong support zone.  A turn here would bring a new Wave 4 high into play but a break would favour the downside scenario/  I find it hard to see the downside scenario if USD is set for some weakness.  Havign said that I expect EURUSD to show weakness before it rallies so let's see...


Link to comment

One reason I was confident of taking a Long here, as well as the primary analysis of course, is that GBPAUD looked like going into a retrace and with GBPUSD set for another rally after the current retrace move this added up to a strong rally on AUDUSD.  Even if you don't want to trade it there is benefit in looking at the whole Triad.


See GBPAUD charts for reference below:



Link to comment


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Posts

    • Sainsburys full year earnings and Unilever’s first quarter trading update both say the same thing, UK consumers are in for higher prices. The war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and the effects of ongoing Covid all to blame.      
    • US Dollar (DXY) Daily Price and Analysis US Q1 GDP may stall the greenback’s advance. A 20-year high nears for the US dollar. The multi-month US dollar rally continues with the greenback printing a fresh high today ahead of the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12.30 GMT. The US dollar basket (DXY) has been boosted by renewed weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen, as investors move from lower-yielding to higher-yielding currencies, while safe-haven flows continue to benefit the greenback. The US growth release later in the session is expected to show a sharp slowdown from the robust Q4 figure of 6.9%. The markets are currently pricing in growth of just 1% for the first three months of this year, with the slowdown mainly due to a reduction in inventory accrual over the quarter. This release is unlikely to move the greenback, unless there is a large miss or beat, as the Fed believe that 2022 US growth will be robust enough to let them tighten monetary policy sharply without damaging the economy. The latest US Core PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation reading – is released on Friday and this may have more effect on the US dollar than today’s GDP data. For all market moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar. The ongoing US dollar rally has been aided by weakness across a range of G7 currencies including the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound. The Euro continues to battle with lowly growth expectations, exacerbated by energy concerns, the British Pound is mired by weak economic data, while the Japanese Yen is in freefall as the BoJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy.   The US dollar continues to press higher and looks set to break above 103.96, the March 2020 high. Above here the US dollar would be back at levels last seen nearly two decades ago. The March resistance will likely hold in the short-term, especially with month-end portfolio rebalancing at the end of the week, but US dollar strength is set to continue in the months ahead. USDOLLAR (DXY) WEEKLY PRICE CHART – APRIL 28, 2022 {{THE_FUNDAMENTALS_OF_BREAKOUT_TRADING}} What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?   Apr 28, 2022 | DailyFX Nick Cawley, Strategist
    • While Tesla has nothing directly to do with Elon Musk buying Twitter - TSLA stock closed down 12% on news that Musk may have to sell stock and use other holdings to stand against the loan to finalise the purchase of the social media giant.        
  • Create New...